中国电力行业低碳转型政策的经济-能源-环境影响

Socio-economic, energy, and environmental effects of low-carbon transition policies on China’s power industry

作为主要的碳排放来源之一,电力行业低碳转型在应对气候变化中扮演着重要角色。然而,现有大多数研究侧重于分析单一电力能源低碳政策,而很少对比分析多种低碳政策的宏观经济影响。基于此,该研究构建了一个包含详细电力技术模块的可计算一般均衡模型,从全局经济角度评估了在实现相同碳减排目标情形下利用碳定价收益补贴电力部门三种减排方式(包括补贴CCS技术,水电和核电,以及风能、太阳能等新能源发电)的经济、能源和环境影响。结果表明:①补贴风能、太阳能等新能源发电是相对最优的碳定价收益利用方式。该方式在达到相同减排目标时所需要的碳价最低,对于整体宏观经济以及对重点用电部门利润造成的损失最小;同时,该方式也可以较明显地促进可再生能源份额和电气化率的提高,且对于SO_(2)和NO_(X)的协同减排效果最佳。②补贴水电和核电的方式次优,该方式对整体宏观经济和重点用电部门利润的负面冲击相对适中,且较好地促进了可再生能源份额、电气化率以及SO_(2)和NO_(X)的协同减排效果。③补贴CCS技术在这三种方式中最不占优势。该方式对于整体宏观经济增长和重点用电部门利润造成的损失最大;同时对可再生能源份额、电气化率以及SO_(2)和NO_(X)协同减排效果的促进作用较为微弱。因此,给出如下建议:①短期内,中国电力行业应率先大力发展清洁电力,尤其需优先考虑将碳定价收益用于补贴风电和太阳能发电;②从长远来看,为实现“碳中和”目标,应大规模部署CCS,在补贴CCS与碳定价相结合方式下,若辅以降低生产间接税,则能较好地减缓对GDP的负面影响;③短期内可适度降低对SO_(2)和NO_(X)的减排措施力度;但长远来看,针对SO_(2)和NO_(X)的措施力度仍不可放松。

The low-carbon transformation of China’s power industry,as one of the major carbon emission sectors,plays an important role in tackling climate change.However,most existing studies focus on the analysis of a single low-carbon power policy,and few have comparatively analyzed the macroeconomic impact of multiple low-carbon policies.Therefore,this study constructed a computable general equilibrium model with a detailed electricity technology module and evaluated the socio-economic,energy,and environmental effects of using carbon pricing revenue to subsidize three mitigation ways in the power industry(including subsidies for CCS technology,hydropower,and nuclear power,as well as wind,solar,and other new ways of energy power generation)so as to achieve the same carbon reduction target.The results showed that:①Subsidizing new energy generation such as wind and solar power was a relatively optimal use of carbon tax revenue.This could achieve the same reduction target with the lowest carbon price and cause the least loss to the overall macro-economy and the profits of the key power-consuming sectors.Meanwhile,it could also significantly promote the proportion of renewable energy and electrification rate and have the best synergistic emission reduction effects for sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))and nitrogen oxides(NO_(X)).②The second best way was to subsidize hydropower and nuclear power.This way could have a relatively moderate negative impact on the overall macro-economic and key power-consuming sectors,and better promote the share of renewable energy,the electrification rate,and the synergistic emission reduction effects of SO_(2) and NO_(X).③Subsidizing carbon capture and storage technology was the least advantageous way,which could cause the greatest loss to the whole macro-economic and key power-consuming sectors.Meanwhile,it had a weak promotion effect on the share of renewable energy,electrification rate,and the synergistic reduction effect of SO_(2) and NO_(X).This study provides the following policy recommendations:①In the short term,China’s power industry should take the lead in vigorously developing clean power,especially giving priority to the use of carbon pricing revenue to subsidize wind and solar power.②To achieve carbon neutrality,the large-scale deployment of CCS in the power industry should be considered in the long run.Under the combination of subsidized CCS and carbon pricing,if the sectoral indirect tax is reduced,the GDP loss can be better mitigated.③The policy efforts for SO_(2) and NO_(X) can be moderately relaxed in the short term,while the measures for SO_(2) and NO_(X) cannot be relaxed in the long run.