南水北调工程通水对受水区水资源集约利用效率的影响——基于河南省市级层面的实证

Impact of water supply of South-to-North Water Transfer Project on the intensive utilization efficiency of water resources in the water receiving area:an empirical analysis at the municipal level of Henan Province

南水北调工程通水改变了受水区水资源利用现状与配置格局,但对受水区水资源集约利用效率的促进作用还有待证实。该研究基于“开源”和“节流”两个视角,分析南水北调工程通水对受水区水资源集约利用效率的影响机制。在此基础上采用一般面板数据回归模型及中介效应模型,选取2015—2019年南水北调中线工程受水区河南段市级面板数据,实证分析南水北调中线工程通水对受水区水资源集约利用效率产生的影响,以技术进步和产业结构为中介变量,检验南水北调工程通水影响受水区水资源集约利用效率的作用机制。研究结果表明:①调水工程通水对受水区河南段水资源集约利用效率具有显著正效应,即水资源集约利用效率会随着调水工程供水强度和供水成本的增加而提升。②技术进步在调水工程通水促进受水区河南段水资源集约利用效率提升的过程中具有显著中介效应;产业结构在调水工程通水促进受水区河南段水资源集约利用效率提升的过程中具有完全中介效应。③技术进步、产业结构对受水区河南段水资源集约利用效率的正向影响会随着调水工程通水规模的扩大而略有下降;模型中政府作用对河南段水资源集约利用效率产生的正向调节效应在加入技术进步与产业结构两个中介变量后变得显著。最后,基于水资源供给管理和需求管理层面,从保障调水工程供水量、完善供水水价定价机制、推动受水区技术进步与创新能力提高、实现产业结构升级等方面提出对策建议,以期充分发挥调水工程通水在受水区水资源集约利用效率提升中的积极作用。

The water supply of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project(SNWTP)has changed the present situation and allocation pattern of water resources in the water receiving area,but its promotion effect on the intensive utilization efficiency of water resources in the water receiving area remains to be proved.Based on the perspectives of‘opening source’and‘reducing expenditure,’this research analyzed the impact mechanism of the water supply of the SNWTP on the intensive utilization efficiency of water resources in the water receiving area.Based on the regression model of general panel data and the mediating effect model,the municipal panel data of the Henan segment of the middle route from 2015 to 2019 was selected to analyze the impact of the water supply of the middle route of SNWTP on the intensive utilization efficiency of water resources.Then,taking technological progress and industrial structure as intermediary variables,this research tested the mechanism of water resource intensive utilization efficiency affected by the water supply of the SNWTP in the Henan segment of the receiving area.The results showed that:①The water transfer project had a significant positive effect on the intensive utilization efficiency of water resources in the Henan segment of the water receiving area,and the intensive utilization efficiency of water resources in this segment would be improved with the increase in water supply intensity and cost of the water transfer project.②Technological progress had a significant mediating effect in the process of improving the efficiency of intensive use of water resources,and industrial structure had a complete mediating effect in the process of improving the efficiency of intensive use of water resources in the Henan segment.③The positive impact of technological progress and industrial structure on the intensive utilization efficiency of water resources in the Henan segment of the water receiving area decreased slightly with the expansion of the water supply scale of the SNWTP.The impact of the government’s role on the intensive utilization efficiency of water resources in the Henan segment became significant when technological progress and industrial structure were included.Finally,based on water resources supply management,corresponding strategies are put forward from the aspects of ensuring the water supply volume of water transfer projects,improving the water pricing mechanism,promoting the technological progress and innovation ability of water receiving areas,and realizing the upgrading of the industrial structure,in order to give full play to the positive role of SNWTP in improving the efficiency of intensive utilization of water resources in water receiving areas.