基于效应理论的出行方式抉择

Choice of Travel Mode Based on Effect Theory

文章将运用经济学中效应理论,通过无差异曲线分析在不同情况下,人们对小汽车、公交出行以及停车换乘P+R方式的抉择。对三种出行方式结合现实条件进行适当且合理的假设,建立小汽车—公交出行无差异曲线模型(公交资源稀缺)、小汽车—公交出行无差异曲线模型(公交资源健全)和智慧交通下的停车换乘P+R—公交出行无差异曲线模型,并在这三个无差异曲线模型中,分析出不同情况下的最优抉择,并合理推测未来交通出行方式的主流及前景。

This paper will use the effect theory in economics,through indifference curve analysis in different circumstances,people's choice of car,bus travel and park-and-transfer P+R.On three kinds of mode combined with practical conditions and proper and reasonable assumptions,establish a car-indifference curve model of transit mode(bus)of scarce resources,the car-the indifference curve model of transit mode(sound)bus resources and wisdom parking under the traffic transfer P+R-bus travel indifference curve model,and in these three indifference curve model.The optimal choice under different circumstances is analyzed,and the mainstream and prospects of future transportation modes are reasonably predicted.