基于灰色马尔科夫模型的道路施工期交通量预测

Traffic Volume Forecast during Road Construction Based on Grey Markov Model

针对城市道路施工期,交通量历史数据少的特点,建立灰色马尔科夫交通预测模型,并以崇川路由西向东断面的交通量数据为例进行研究。结果表明,此模型相比于传统的GM1,1模型预测交通量具有更高的预测精准度,能够更好地研究道路施工期交通量的发展趋势。

In view of the lack of historical data of urban road traffic volume during construction period,the Grey-Markov prediction model is established.Furthermore,traffic volume of Chongchuan road from west to east is applied.The results reveal that the model has higher accuracy in predicting traffic volume compared with traditional GM1,1 model,which can better study the volume trend during road construction period.