一种考虑环境因素的自动步枪可靠性分析方法

An Analysis Method of Automatic Rifle Reliability Considering Environmental Factors

目的分析环境因素对于自动步枪系统可靠性的影响。方法首先介绍贝叶斯网络理论,然后将自动步枪系统可靠性建模划分为刚性抛壳机构和弹匣供弹机构两大模块。在此基础上,从设计制造、使用因素和环境因素3个方面进行故障树建模。将故障树转化为贝叶斯模型后,基于给出的底事件失效概率和引入的环境影响因子,计算考虑环境因素带来的共因失效效应时自动步枪系统的可靠度。结果从系统层面来看,环境因素的影响会使系统的可靠度下降8.1%。结论在进行自动步枪的系统可靠性分析时,考虑由环境因素带来的共因失效效应更为符合实际情况,不考虑共因失效效应时,往往会高估子系统的可靠度。

In order to analyze the influence of environmental factors on the reliability of automatic rifle system,this paper firstly introduces Bayesian network theory,and then divides the reliability modeling of automatic rifle system into two modules:rigid ejection mechanism and magazine feeding mechanism,based on which the fault tree modeling is carried out from three aspects:design and manufacture,use factors and environmental factors.After transforming the fault tree into a Bayesian model,the reliability of the automatic rifle system considering the common cause failure effect caused by environmental factors is cal-culated based on the given failure probability of basic event and the introduced environmental influence factor.At the system level,the reliability of the system will be reduced by 8.1%due to the influence of environmental factors.Therefore,analyzing the reliability of automatic rifle system,it is more realistic to consider the CCF effect caused by environmental factors,and the reliability of subsystem is often overestimated when the CCF effect is not considered.