我国政府卫生支出与经济增长因果关系分析——基于HP滤波法和格兰杰因果检验

Causal Relationship between Government Health Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Based on HP Filtering Method and Granger–Geweke Causality Test

目的:研究政府对于医疗卫生的公共支出是否对GDP的增长产生作用。方法:提取2007—2019年相关年鉴中数据,采用HP滤波法和格兰杰因果检验法,验证政府卫生支出是否对GDP产生作用。结果:经研究,政府卫生支出和GDP互为因果,具有相互依赖的关系。结论:中国仍处于政府卫生支出规模增加能够促进健康、增加经济发展的阶段。建议政府卫生支出规模进一步加大,并因地制宜地与当地社会发展水平和人民卫生服务需求相匹配,减少地区财政收入差异带来的政府卫生支出不公平的情况。

OBJECTIVEThere is no consensus in the academic circles on whether the government’s public expenditure on health care has an effect on the growth of GDP. METHODS It extracts the relevant indicators from the yearbook data from 2007 to2019 and uses HP Filtering Method and Granger–Geweke Causality Test to verify that government health expenditure and GDP are causal and interdependent. RESULTS China is still at a stage when the increase in the scale of government health expenditure can promote health and increase economic development. CONCLUSION It is suggested that the scale of government health expenditure should be further increased, and should be matched with the local social development level and people’s health service demand according to local conditions, so as to reduce the unfairness of government health expenditure caused by regional fiscal revenue differences.