中国天然气市场价格风险分析与防范建议

Price risk analysis and prevention suggestions of natural gas market in China

2021年以来,国际原油、天然气等大宗商品价格快速上涨,给境外相关实体企业带来强烈冲击。目前中国天然气价格改革处于转轨时期,天然气定价还没有实现在有效市场中发现均衡价格,两种定价方法双轨并行的风险因素在逐渐累加,主要体现在:一是定价权在外,存在输入性价格波动带来的供给冲击风险;二是缺少做空机制,未形成有效市场,存在天然气价格持续上涨的风险;三是行业特点决定均衡价格可能缺失,造成天然气供应不足的风险;四是行业成本过高,造成需求收缩预期转弱的风险。建议:合理选取产业链节点,发现市场均衡价格;发挥实体经济优势,加快建设亚洲天然气定价中心;鼓励管道气签署长期协议,民生重点用气保供稳价;利用天然气期货市场作为财务避险工具,降低行业成本;天然气行业实体企业应做好技术和人才准备。

Since 2021,the international prices of crude oil,natural gas,and other commodities have risen rapidly,which has brought a strong impact on the relevant foreign entity enterprises.At present,China’s natural gas price reform is in the transition period,and the equilibrium price has not been found in the effective market.The risk factors of the two pricing methods are gradually accumulating,mainly reflected in the following aspects.Firstly,the risk of supply shock was caused by imported price fluctuations due to the absence of pricing power.Secondly,the lack of short selling mechanism and the effective market would bring the risk of sustained rise in natural gas prices.Thirdly,the characteristics of the industry determine that the equilibrium price may be missing,resulting in the risk of insufficient natural gas supply.Fourthly,high industry costs lead the risk of weakening expectations of demand contraction.It is suggests to reasonably select the nodes of the industrial chain and find the market equilibrium price,give full play to the advantages of the real economy,speed up the construction of the Asian natural gas pricing center,encourage pipeline gas to sign long-term agreements,focus on gas supply stability for people’s livelihood,use the natural gas futures market as a financial risk aversion tool,reduce industry costs,and prepare for technology and talents for physical enterprises in the natural gas industry.