俄罗斯低碳转型下中俄能源合作新机遇

New opportunities for China-Russia energy cooperation under Russia’s low-carbon transition

2021年10月,俄罗斯总统普京宣布力争在2060年前实现碳中和目标。11月,俄总理批准了《俄罗斯到2050年前实现温室气体低排放的社会经济发展战略》,为俄2060年前实现碳中和目标确立了顶层规划。俄罗斯油气出口贸易格局正在发生变化,短期内最大油气出口目标市场仍在欧洲,随着北极航道进一步打开,以中国为代表的亚太将成为俄罗斯油气出口的重要目标地区。为保持在能源贸易领域的领先地位,俄罗斯将氢能和北极油气出口作为其低碳转型的重要抓手。未来中俄关于氢能产业的双边合作有望在基础设施建设和产业链领域进一步升级。《2035前俄罗斯联邦北极地区发展和国家安全保障战略》与中国的东北振兴、京津冀协同发展、长三角一体化等国家战略高度契合。随着中俄全面战略协作伙伴关系迈向新时代,俄罗斯低碳转型对中国利大于弊。中国可加强与俄罗斯在氢能和在远东地区的战略性合作,不断增强基础设施“硬联通”,深化新时代下中俄能源合作战略协作伙伴关系。

In October 2021, Russia pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and put forward a strategy for lowcarbon social and economic development to direct achieving carbon neutrality. Influenced by geopolitics and energy demands,Russia’s oil and gas export trade pattern is changing. In the short term, the largest oil and gas export market is still in Europe, but the Asia-Pacific region represented by China will become an important support for Russia’s oil and gas export with the further opening of the Arctic shipping route. To maintain its leading position in energy trade, Russia will focus on hydrogen and Arctic oil and gas exports as key levers for its low-carbon transition. In the future, China-Russia bilateral cooperation in hydrogen energy industry is expected to be further upgraded in infrastructure construction and industrial chain. The “Strategy of development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and the provision of national security for the period to 2035” is highly compatible with China’s national strategies for revitalizing northeast China, promoting coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and integrating the Yangtze River Delta. As the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination moves into a new era, Russia’s low-carbon transition will do more good than harm to China. China can strengthen strategic cooperation with Russia in hydrogen energy and the Far East, continuously enhance the “strong connectivity” of infrastructure, and deepen China-Russia strategic partnership of coordination in energy cooperation in the new era.