从哈萨克斯坦暴乱透视其能源经济问题

Analysis on Kazakhstan’s energy and economic problems in view of its 2022 mass riots

2022年1月,哈萨克斯坦爆发了因液化石油气涨价造成的全国性动乱,在给哈国政治、经济与安全带来严重损害的同时,还暴露了哈国存在的经济发展问题,包括经济结构的脆弱性、无法摆脱的能源资源魔咒、欠完备的能源产业体系、不可持续的保障国民高福利的机制、在能源经济领域外国企业与寡头经济的持续垄断问题。以此次暴乱为转折点,哈总统托卡耶夫宣言要开启新哈萨克斯坦时代,出台一系列旨在为人民谋福利的经济新政,包括稳定国内能源市场供应与价格、营造健康有序的投资环境、改革萨姆鲁克-卡泽纳基金、成立“为哈萨克斯坦人民”基金、打击腐败同时调整主要政府部门和企业负责人等。未来哈国的合作环境将呈现日趋规范和严格、对企业的社会责任与合规的要求提高、合作对象趋于多元等特点,在能源领域则呈现对传统行业高质量发展、能源安全、低碳与绿色发展诉求加强的特点。建议抓住哈国经济改革的时代机遇,扎实推进传统能源合作的低碳绿色化、新能源合作的可持续化。

In January 2022, a nationwide turmoil broke out in Kazakhstan due to the increase in the price of liquefied petroleum gas. While causing serious damage to Kazakhstan’s politics, economy, and security, it also exposed the country’s such economic development problems as the vulnerability of economic structure, the inescapable curse of energy resources,the incomplete energy industry system, the unsustainable mechanism to ensure high national welfare, and the continuous monopoly of foreign companies and oligopolistic economies of energy economy. Taking this riot as a turning point, President Tokayev declared to open a new era of Kazakhstan and issued a series of new economic policies aimed at benefiting the people, such as to stabilize the domestic energy market supply and prices, create a healthy and orderly investment environment,reform the Samruk-Kazyna Fund, establish the Qazaqstan Halqyna Fund, fight against corruption and personnel adjustment.In the future, the cooperation environment of Kazakhstan will become increasingly standardized and strict, the requirements for corporate social responsibility and compliance will increase, and the cooperation objects will tend to be diversified. In the energy sector, the demand for high-quality development, energy security, the low-carbon, and green development in traditional industries needs to be strengthened. It is suggested to make traditional energy cooperation low-carbon and green and carry out sustainable development of new energy cooperation by seizing the opportunity of Kazakhstan’s economic reform.