消费恢复性反弹 未来面临更严峻挑战——2021年世界和中国石化行业综述及2022年展望

Review of global and China petrochemical industry in 2021 and outlook for 2022

2021年,世界石化产品消费恢复速度超过预期,上游供应一度难以跟上下游需求,加之受北美暴风雪等极端事件影响供应,世界石化产业链仍未得以有效理顺;石化产能新增规模再创新高;石化产品贸易仍受高成本所困;石化产品价格大幅上涨。中国的石化产品价格攀升至5年新高,但受去库存等因素影响,全年行业消费不如预期;石化行业仍处于扩张周期。2022年,面对地区冲突以及经济滞涨带来的市场波动和需求不足,预计石化产品消费复苏进程充满挑战,全球石化生产增添不确定性;扩能高潮步入尾声;全球石化行业亏损风险加剧,欧洲和亚洲的石化企业将面临更严峻挑战。中国的石化产品需求将持续回暖,石化产品的产能全面跃居世界首位,石化行业将在“双控”等政策影响下进一步朝着绿色化、低碳化发展。

In 2021, the world petrochemical consumption recovered faster than expected. The world petrochemical industry chain has not been efectively rationalized and upstream supply was hard to keep up with downstream demand coupling with extreme supply events such as severe snowstorms in North America. New petrochemical production capacity scale hit a new high, the petrochemicals trade continued to sufer from high costs, and petrochemical prices rose sharply. During the same period, the price of domestic petrochemical products also climbed to a five-year high, the petrochemical industry was still in an expansion cycle, but the industry consumption for the whole year was not as expected due to the destocking and other influences.In 2022, the recovery process of petrochemical consumption is expected to be challenging and there will be uncertainty for global petrochemical production under extreme geopolitical turmoil, market fluctuation, and insufficient demands causing by economic stagnation. Expansion climax would end, the risk of losses in the global petrochemical industry increase, and petrochemical companies in Europe and Asia will face more severe challenges. China’s demand for petrochemical products will continue to pick up and the overall production capacity of petrochemical products will become the first in the world. Under the influence of “dual control” and other policies, the domestic petrochemical industry will also strive to expand its development space towards green and low-carbon development.