“十四五”初期中国成品油市场特征与行业发展建议

Characteristics of China’s refined oil market and industry development suggestions in the early stage of the 14^(th) Five-Year Plan

进入2021年以来,中国成品油市场受到疫情防控常态化、“双碳”经济目标约束、行业治理水平提升、信息技术迭代更新等多方面的因素影响,市场供需形势、竞争格局、资源结构、监管政策、营销模式等呈现出新的特征。成品油需求增长恢复不及预期,汽油消费增速回落至5%以内,柴油消费基本保持稳定,航煤消费量与潜在增长水平仍有较大差距,消费柴汽比延续下降趋势;成品油供应过剩状况进一步缓解;行业竞争格局趋于稳定;调和汽柴油等隐性资源规模大幅萎缩;政策导向由“宽准入”向“严监管”转变;互联网平台与传统营销模式融合加快。这些特征将深刻影响“十四五”中后期的行业发展。建议中国石油行业的成品油经营主体坚持以稳定市场占有率作为基本发展目标,通过提升品牌价值赢得市场竞争的主动权,杜绝非法违法生产经营活动,积极拥抱互联网技术推动下所萌生的营销新业态。

Since the beginning of 2021, China’s refined oil market has been afected by the normalization of pandemic prevention and control, the restriction of the “dual carbon” economic target, the improvement of industry governance, the iterative updating of information technology, and other factors. The market supply and demand situation, competition pattern, resource structure, regulatory policies, marketing model, and other factors have taken on new features. The demand growth of refined oil has recovered less than expected, gasoline consumption growth fell below 5%, diesel consumption remained basically stable,there is a large gap between jet coal consumption and potential growth level, consumption ratio of diesel to gasoline has been downward trend, the oversupply of refined oil products has been further eased, the industry competition pattern tended to be stable, the scale of hidden resources such as blending gasoline and diesel has shrunk significantly, the policy guidance changed from “wide access” to “strict supervision”, the integration of Internet platforms and traditional marketing models has been accelerated, which will profoundly afect the development of the industry in the middle and later period of the 14;Five-Year Plan.It is suggested that the refined oil business entities in the domestic oil industry adhere to the basic development goal of stabilizing market share, win the initiative of market competition by improving brand value, eliminate illegal production and business activities, and be proactively embrace the new marketing formats promoted by Internet technology.