代际演进背景下后发标准赶超机制研究——对4G标准竞争的解释

Research on the Catch-up Mechanism of Later Standards in the Background of Intergenerational Evolution: An Explanation of 4G Standards Competition

标准竞争是数字经济时代市场竞争的重要形式,但长期以来我国标准发展滞后,企业标准竞争力较弱。本文基于创新扩散理论,构建了标准竞争理论模型,研究了标准竞争的一般机制,探讨了代际演进作为策略性行为促进后发标准赶超的机理。结果表明,标准竞争是技术性能效应和网络效应共同驱动的结果,技术性能效应刻画了标准质量对标准竞争的作用,网络效应反映了网络外部性对标准竞争的影响;随着标准向用户的扩散,标准竞争的内在动力会从技术性能驱动向技术性能和网络效应共同驱动转变。标准代际演进通过技术性能效应和网络效应两种机制促进后发标准实现赶超:一方面,标准代际演进提升了标准质量和用户基础效用;另一方面,代际演进会促使用户产生等待和观望效应,进而降低先发标准的用户规模和网络效应。在标准代际演进过程中,参与标准演进的企业越多,代际演进促进后发标准实现赶超的概率越大。但标准代际演进时间具有双重作用,当标准代际演进时间低于临界值时,延长标准代际演进时间可以提升后发标准赶超概率;当标准代际演进时间高于临界值时,压缩标准代际演进时间,加快推动代际演进可以提升后发标准赶超概率。本文利用以上研究框架和结论,分析了4G移动通信时代WiMAX和LTE竞争过程中WiMAX失败的原因,提出了促进企业在标准竞争中实现赶超的政策建议。

Standard competition is becoming one of most important form of competition during the digital economy era. However, for a long time, the development of standards in China has lagged behind, and the competitiveness of enterprise standards is weak. Based on diffusion theory, this paper constructs a general theoretical model of standard competition, and studies the general mechanism of standard competition and the role of intergeneration evolution in standard competition and catch-up. The results show that standard competition is driven by both technical performance effects and network effects. Technical performance effects depict the effect of standard quality on standard competition, and network effects reflect the impact of network externalities on standard competition. With the development of standards competition, the internal driving force of standards competition will change from technical performance effects to both technical performance effects and network effects. In the initial period of standard competition, standard technical performance plays a leading role in standard competition;with the advancement of standard competition and the growth of user scale, network effects play an increasingly important role in standard competition.The inter-generational evolution of standards promotes the catch-up of later-mover standards through two mechanisms of standard technology performance effect and network effect: on the one hand, the inter-generational evolution of standards improves the quality of standards and the basic utility of users, and promotes the transfer of users to later-mover standards;on the other hand, inter-generational evolution of standards will produce user waiting and wait-and-see effects, thereby reducing the user scale and network effects of the first-mover standard. The more enterprises participating in the standard evolution, the greater the probability of catching up of later-mover standard However, the time period of standard intergenerational evolution has a dual role. When the standard intergenerational evolution is longer than the critical value, extending the standard intergenerational evolution time can increase the probability of standard overtaking;but when the standard intergenerational evolution is shorter than the critical value, extending the standard intergenerational evolution time will reduce the standard catch-up probability.Although WiMAX has a first-mover advantage in commercial time during the competition between WiMAX and LTE,LTE has finally won the competition with frequent intergenerational evolution. During the intergenerational upgrade of the standard, not only the performance of the LTE standard has been greatly improved, but also the wait-and-see attitude of major users has been strengthened. Secondly, the 3 GPP standard organization that dominates the formulation of LTE standards is highly open. By attracting a large number of industry entities to participate in the standard intergenerational evolution, the LTE standard performance and industry system have been improved greatly. As a key player in the global mobile communication industry, China’s non-compromise attitude of WiMAX in the cooperation lead to China support and develop LTE, which also accelerates the failure of WiMAX.