基于CA-Markov模型的库布齐沙漠土地利用变化预测研究

Prediction of Land Use Change in Kubuqi Desert based on CA-Markov Model

为掌握库布齐沙漠土地利用动态变化规律,研究了库布齐沙漠2020-2035年的土地利用时空格局演变特征。本研究以库布齐沙漠2000-2020年5期Landsat TM OLI影像为数据源,解译分析了近20 a土地利用动态变化,并基于CA-Markov模型预测了研究区2025-2035年土地利用时空格局演变特征。结果表明:(1)2020年研究区土地利用类型以未利用地、林草地及耕地为主。(2)2000-2020年研究区未利用地面积持续减少,林草地、耕地及建设用地面积呈增加趋势,水域面积呈波动式减少趋势,其中耕地及建设用地面积变化活跃,动态度分别为9.52%和4.28%。(3)基于CA-Markov模型模拟了2015年和2020年土地利用空间特征,其中Kappa系数分别为82%和79%,各土地利用类型模拟误差均低于15%,相关研究对改善区域脆弱的生态环境及干旱、半干旱地区土地资源规划管理具有重要意义。

In order to grasp the dynamic change law of land use in Kubuqi Desert,the evolution characteristics of spatio-temporal pattern of land use in Kubuqi Desert from 2020 to 2035 were predicted.Taking the Landsat TM OLI images of Kubuqi Desert from 2000 to 2020 as the data sources,this study interprets and analyzes the dynamic changes of land use in recent 20 years,and predicts the evolution characteristics of spatio-temporal pattern of land use in the studying area from 2025 to 2035 based on CA-Markov model.The results show:(1)The land use types in the studying area in 2020 were mainly unused land,forest and grassland and cultivated land.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the area of unused land in the studying area continued to decrease,the area of forest,grassland,cultivated land and construction land showed an increasing trend,and the area of water area showed a fluctuating decreasing trend.Among them,the area of cultivated land and construction land changed actively,with a dynamic degree of 9.52%and 4.28%respectively.(3)The spatial characteristics of land use in 2015 and 2020 were simulated based on CA-Markov model,in which the kappa coefficient was 82%and 79%respectively,and the simulation error of each land use type was less than 15%.The relevant research is of great significance to improve the regional fragile ecological environment and the planning and management of land resources in arid and semi-arid areas.