马尔科夫预测法评估某院血液科药品不良反应报告数量

Evaluation of Adverse Drug Reaction Reports in the Department of Hematology of a Hospital by the Markov Prediction Method

目的基于马尔科夫预测法(简称马尔科夫法)预测医院血液科药品不良反应(ADR)发生状态的合理性,监测ADR上报数量。方法收集医院药剂科2018年1月至2019年11月上报的血液科ADR发生例数,共3088例。基于马尔科夫法预测血液科ADR发生状态的合理性,采用三分法对ADR发生例数划分状态,以连续前12个月为1个序列构建马尔科夫链序列,使用矩阵实验室(MATLAB)程序进行计算,预测第13个月ADR发生的状态(期望值),并与实际ADR发生状态比较。结果ADR发生数量的序列满足马尔科夫链条件。在11个序列中,有7个期望值与预测结果符合,有2个不符合;因数据不符合马尔科夫链的过程,故程序无法计算的有2个。符合情况下的概率为63.64%(7/11)。结论采用马尔科夫法评估某个病区上报的ADR报告数量在未来的周期是否存在异常,监测被动上报的ADR报告数量是否合乎正常,对于督促各病区真实、合理上报ADR,加强医-护-药间的合作有着积极意义。

Objective To predict the rationality of the occurrence status of adverse drug reaction(ADR)in the Department of Hematology of a hospital based on the Markov prediction method,and to monitor the number of ADR reports.Methods A total of 3088 cases of ADR in the Department of Hematology reported by the Department of Pharmacy in the hospital from January 2018 to November 2019 were collected.The rationality of the occurrence status of ADR in the Department of Hematology was predicted by the Markov prediction method.The occurrence status of ADR was graded by the trichotomy method.The occurrence status of ADR in the first 12 consecutive months was taken as a sequence to construct the Markov chain sequence,then the sequence was calculated by the Matrix Laboratory(MATLAB)program to predict the occurrence status(expected value)of ADR at the 13th month,and the predicted occurrence status of ADR was compared with the actual occurrence status of ADR.Results The sequences of ADR data satisfied the condition of the Markov chain.Among the 11 sequences,there were seven sequences of which expected values were consistent with the predicted results,while there were two sequences of which expected values were inconsistent with the predicted results,and there were two sequences that could not be calculated by the MATLAB program because their data were inconsistent with the process of Markov chain.On the premise of compliance,the probability of prediction was 63.64%(7/11).Conclusion The application of the Markov prediction method can evaluate whether the number of ADR reported by a ward is abnormal in the future cycle,and monitor whether the number of ADR passively reported is normal,which has a positive significance to urge each ward to report ADR truly and reasonably and strengthen the cooperation among doctors,nurses and pharmacists.