基于不确定性分析方法的水资源承载力评价研究

Research on Water Resources Carrying Capacity Evaluation Based on Uncertainty Analysis Methods

选取云南省16州(市)为研究对象,利用变异系数法计算指标权重,采用4种不确定性分析方法对研究区域的水资源承载力进行评价,评价结果虽有一定的差异,但4种方法的评价结果均能较好地反映研究区域的水资源承载力状况。结果表明,昆明、玉溪等5个地区的水资源承载力为Ⅰ级;保山、昭通等10个地区水资源承载力为Ⅱ级;曲靖的水资源承载力为Ⅲ级。总体看来,云南省多数地区水资源承载力较好,开发利用潜力较大,还能进行一定规模的开发利用。

Selecting 16 prefectures(cities) in Yunnan Province as the research objects, the coefficient of variation method is used to calculate the index weights, and four uncertainty analysis methods are used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the study area respectively. Although there are certain differences in the evaluation results, the evaluation results of the four methods can better reflect the water resources carrying capacity of the study area. The evaluation results show that the water resources carrying capacity of 5 areas including Kunming and Yuxi is Grade Ⅰ, the water resources carrying capacity of 10 areas including Baoshan and Zhaotong is Grade Ⅱ, and the water resources carrying capacity of Qujing is Grade Ⅲ. In general, most areas in Yunnan Province have good water resources carrying capacity with great potential for development and utilization, so the water resources can alao be developed and utilized on a certain scale.