影响在线学习的五大趋势:从多焦点视角看未来可能发展

Five major trends shaping online learning:a multifocal view of possible futures

新冠肺炎危机促使人们想了解在线学习的主要趋势以及今后可能如何发展。本文不是预测在线学习的未来,而是针对新冠大流行期间忽视在线学习研究成果的倾向,试图全面概括在线学习领域的情况,关注在线学习的未来。文章认为定义在线学习并非易事,这个术语在实际使用中千差万别。文章从多焦点视角归纳了五种宏观趋势,有助于从不同角度和观点对此进行分析。文章涉及广泛内容,基于大量文献揭示数字教育生态系统是如何同时兼具融合、扩大规模、更加开放又更加封闭以及越来越多样性的特点。这些矛盾趋势之间存在内在紧张关系,因此必须从大社会变革力量方面认识在线学习。据此,本文试图兼顾大社会问题、机会言辞和必不可少的深刻批判。文章对在线学习寄予厚望,也强调了教育工作者在塑造在线学习可能、很有可能和更可取的未来中所发挥的重要作用。

The COVID-19 crisis begs the question, what are the main trends in online learning? What might the future look like? While this paper does not set out to predict the future as this is best left to those who have a crystal ball, it does endeavor to provide a big picture helicopter view of the online learning field.It responds to the tendency to overlook the research literature during the pandemic and aims to help keep the future of online learning in the spotlight. The paper establishes that defining online learning is not a straightforward task, and there are widespread differences in the use of the term. A multifocal perspective is then adopted to identify five macro-level trends, which help frame the analysis from different angles and viewpoints. The discussion covers much ground and draws on a wide range of literature to illustrate how the digital education ecosystem is simultaneously converging, getting larger in scale, more open and closed, and is growing in diversity. Inherent tensions across these contradictory trends demonstrate how online learning needs to be understood in terms of wider societal change forces. Accordingly,the helicopter analysis attempts to steer a path between wider social issues, the language of opportunity,and the need for deeper criticality. Visible throughout the paper is the spirit of hope and the important role that educators play in shaping possible, probable, and preferred futures.