科学研究与卫生需求动态关系定量研究——以神经系统疾病为例

A Quantitative Study on the Dynamic Relationship Between Scientific Research and Health Needs:Taking Neurological Diseases as an Example

[目的/意义]科学技术的进步是保障人类生命安全、提升人类生活福祉的重要手段。定量探究科学研究与卫生需求的动态关系,可为科学研究布局与资源分配提供有益借鉴。[方法/过程]以全球主要的致残及致死因素之一——神经系统疾病为案例,利用2000-2019年科学文献数据、疾病负担多重指标(伤残调整生命年、致死人数、科研依赖性负担)与人类发展指数,在构建科学研究与卫生需求关系定量分析框架的基础上,探析神经系统疾病负担与科研产出的匹配性、相关性及回归关系。[结果/结论]研究发现,过去20年间,神经系统疾病的负担及文献产出在全球范围内均呈现上升趋势。整体而言,科学界对此类疾病给予了较为充足的关注,但其中部分疾病(如偏头痛)的研究力度相对欠缺。不同发展水平国家视角下,神经系统疾病负担主要集中于超高水平国家,此类国家也是应对该疾病负担的核心科研力量。细分至具体疾病来看,超高水平国家对于中低水平国家负担相对较高的疾病(如癫痫)的科研关注度较弱。回归分析结果表明,疾病负担与文献产出显著正相关,说明疾病负担的增长对该疾病相关文献产出有正向影响。相较于伤残调整生命年,更为直观的致死人数对科学文献产出的影响更大。此外,本研究论证创新性指标"科研依赖性负担"的现有局限性,并基于数据结果提出相关建议。

[Purpose/Significance] The advancement of science and technology plays a vital role in safeguard・ing human life security and enhancing human well-being.Quantitative research on the dynamic relationship between scientific research and health needs could provide beneficial references for layout and resource allocation of scientific research.[Method/Process]On the basis of construction of a quantitative analysis framework of the relationship between scientific research and health needs,this paper took one of the world's major disability and mortality causes,namely neurological diseases,as a case study and used scientific academic publications,multiple indicators of disease burden(disability・adjusted life years,number of fatalities,research-dependent fraction of global burden of disease)and the Human Development Index(HDI)from 2000 to 2019 to explore the matching,correlation,and regression relationships between the burden of neurological diseases and scientific research outputs.[Result/Conclusion] The results show that the burden of neurological diseases and academic outputs have been increasing globally from 2000 to 2019.In general,the scientific community has given more than adequate attention to such diseases,but some of them(e.g.,migraine)have been relatively poorly studied.From the perspective of countries at different HDI levels,the burden of neurological diseases is mainly concentrated in very-high level countries,and such countries are also the main contributors of relevant research.In terms of specific diseases,very-high level countries have paid less scientific attention on diseases(e.g.,epilepsy)with relatively high burden in low-and medium-level countries.The regression analysis show that increase of disease burden had a positive impact on academic outputs.Further,the number of academic outputs is affected greater by the number of deaths in comparison to the disability-adjusted life years.In addition,the existing limitations of an innovative indicator"research-dependent fraction of global burden of disease"are also demonstrated by this paper,and some related suggestions are put forward based on the data results.