基于事理图谱的重大突发事件动态演变研究

Research on the Dynamic Evolution of Major Emergencies Based on Event Knowledge Graph

[目的/意义]为了更快速高效地应对重大突发事件,本文针对重大突发事件的动态演变过程展开研究,以期辅助相关部门对重大突发事件的应对和决策。[方法/过程]基于事理图谱的理论与方法,通过事理图谱构建、事件泛化等步骤得到重大突发事件抽象事理图谱,对其进一步分析总结事件演变的动因,结合系统动力学模型进行事件演变的动态仿真模拟。[结果/结论]研究结果表明,高度泛化的知识可以揭示事件演变的原因、影响因素;重大突发事件事理图谱与系统动力学方法的结合实现了从知识视角仿真模拟事件演变的过程。

[Purpose/Significance]In order to respond to major emergencies more quickly and efficiently,this paper conducts a study on the dynamic evolution process of major emergencies,with a view to assisting relevant departments in responding to and making decisions on major emergencies.[Method/Process] Based on the theory and method of event knowledge graph,this paper obtained the abstract event knowledge graph of major emergencies through the steps of event knowledge graph construction,event generalization,etc,and further analyzed it to summarize the motivation of event evolution,combined with the system dynamics model,the dynamic simulation model of the event evolution was carried out.[Result/Conclusion] The research results show that highly generalized knowl・edge can reveal the causes and influencing factors of event evolution;With the combination of major emergencies e-vent knowledge graph and system dynamics method,the process of simulating the evolution of events is achieved from the perspective of knowledge.