变暖背景下南宁市气候承载力定量评价

Quantitative evaluation of Nanning climate carrying capacity under the background of global warming

利用2000—2019年南宁市气象数据及社会统计资料,构建包含4个准则层和27个指标的南宁市气候承载力定量评价体系,开展南宁市气候承载力评价研究。结果表明,近20a南宁市气候承载力呈波动下降的趋势,气候承载空间不容乐观;天然气候容量和极端气候事件压力指数年际波动明显,城市气候压力和城市协调发展能力指数均呈显著上升趋势,但前者上升幅度显著大于后者。南宁市气候系统脆弱性较大,极易受到大风和极端暴雨的影响,城市气候协调发展能力的增长无法抵消城市经济发展及气候不稳定性对气候系统造成的负面压力。南宁市的气候承载力提升需要降低城市气候系统压力,提升防御自然灾害能力,大力发展绿色经济,减少气候变暖背景下气候异常波动的负面影响。

Based on the meteorological data and social statistics of Nanning from 2000 to 2019,a quantitative evaluation system of Nanning climate carrying capacity including 4 criteria layers and 27 indicators was constructed to carry out the evaluation research.The results show that in the past 20 years,the climate carrying capacity of Nanning has shown a fluctuating and declining trend,and the situation of climate carrying space is not optimistic.The climate natural capacity(CNC)and extreme climate event(ECI)indexes fluctuate significantly between years.The city climate pressure(CCP)and city coordinated ability(CDA)indexes show a significant upward trend,but the increase range of the former is significantly greater than that of the latter.Nanning’s climate system is highly vulnerable to gales and extreme rainstorms.The growth of city climate coordinated ability cannot offset the negative pressure on the climate system caused by city economic development and climate instability.To improve the climate carrying capacity of Nanning,it is necessary to reduce the city climate pressure,improve the ability to defend against natural disasters,and vigorously develop a green economy to reduce the negative impacts of abnormal climate fluctuations under the background of global warming.