瓯江流域感潮河段潮位变化趋势分析

Analysis of the Trend of Tidal Level Change in the Tidal Section of the Oujiang River Basin

感潮河段受上游径流和外海潮汐作用,在上游洪水和下游潮水的双重影响下,其潮位变化趋势复杂。基于温州站和龙湾站的日潮位数据集和年潮位数据集从1970年~2019年进行潮位变化趋势分析,使用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall(MK)法、Theil-Sen median法等分析方法。结果表明,市区所临河段的高-高潮位由海面潮位控制,受上游径流影响小,对水位升高影响有限;受洪水和潮位叠加影响,低-低潮位的升高会影响温州市区内涝排泄,以上结果有助于瓯江流域对台风、洪水等水文灾害的预警和防治。

Tide-sensing rivers are affected by upstream runoff and open sea tides.Under the dual influences of upstream floods and downstream tides,their tide level changes are complex.Based on the daily tide level dataset and the annual tide level dataset from Wenzhou and Longwan stations,the tide level change trend analysis was carried out from 1970 to 2019.Analysis was perfonried using linear regression method,Mann-Kendall(MK)method,Theil-Sen median method and other methods.The results show that the high-tide level of the river segment adjacent to the urban area is controlled by the sea surface tide level,and is less affected by the upstream runoff and has a limited impact on the water level rise.Affected by the superposition of floods and tide levels,the increase of low-low tide levels will affect the drainage of waterlogging in Wenzhou City.The above results are helpful for the early warning and prevention of hydrological disasters such as typhoons and floods in the Oujiang River Basin.