地方政府债务对人地城镇化失衡的影响——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

The Impact of Local Government Debt on the Imbalance of Urbanization:An empirical analysis based on spatial Dubin model

基于全国2010—2019年30个省区市的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型实证检验地方政府债务对人地城镇化失衡的影响。结果显示:人地城镇化失衡具有空间溢出效应;地方政府债务水平的提高加剧了人地城镇化失衡;分区域来看,相较于东部地区,中西部地区地方政府债务对人地城镇化失衡的正向作用更为突出。基于此,提出深入地方政府政绩考核体系改革和增强地方债务支出结构管理的建议。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces,regions and cities in China from 2010 to 2019,the impact of local government debt on the urbanization imbalance between people and land is tested using the spatial Dubin model.The results show that the imbalance of urbanization between people and land has spatial spillover effect,the increase of local government debt has aggravated the imbalance of urbanization between people and land.In the view of sub-region,compared with the eastern region,the positive effect of Local Government debt on the urbanization imbalance of Midwestern Sectional Figure Skating Championships is more prominent.Based on this,the suggestions of deepening the reform of local government performance appraisal system and strengthening the management of local debt expenditure structure are put forward.