气候和人类活动对辽宁省植被变化的影响

Effects of climate and human activities on vegetation variation in Liaoning Province

基于2000—2019年MODIS-NDVI和气温、降水等气象数据及大气环流指数等资料,运用趋势分析、相关分析、通径分析和残差分析等方法对气候和人类活动影响下辽宁省植被动态演变特征进行探讨,并结合趋势系数和Hurst指数的叠加分析植被未来变化趋势。结果表明:辽宁省年均NDVI以0.004/a的速率增长,总体植被状况良好;空间上辽宁省植被覆盖程度主要以改善为主,辽阳市与沈阳市一带有轻微退化现象;辽宁省植被对降水的响应高于气温,2000—2019年人类活动对辽宁省植被的影响由消极转变为积极;辽宁省NDVI在反持续变化中,退化面积占到总面积的55.24%,表现为分散于整个区域的空间分布状况,未来更应继续加强植被保育和退耕还林力度。

Based on the data of MODIS-NDVI,air temperature,precipitation and atmospheric circulation index from 2000 to 2019,the dynamic evolution characteristics of vegetation in Liaoning Province under the influence of climate and human activities were discussed by using trend analysis,correlation analysis,path analysis and residual analysis.Combined with the superposition of trend coefficient and Hurst index,the future change trend of vegetation was analyzed.The results show that the average annual NDVI increased at a rate of 0.004/a in Liaoning Province,and the overall vegetation status was good.Spatially,the vegetation coverage in Liaoning Province was mainly improved,with slight degradation in Liaoyang and Shenyang citys.The response of vegetation to precipitation in Liaoning Province was higher than that of air temperature,and the impact of human activities on vegetation in Liaoning Province changed from negative to positive from 2000 to 2019.In the reverse continuous change of NDVI in Liaoning Province,the degraded area accounts for 55.24%of the total area,which shows the spatial distribution of NDVI scattered in the whole region.In the future,the efforts of vegetation conservation and returning farmland to forest should be strengthened.