文化冲突对中国入境旅游需求的影响

Impact of Cultural Conflict on Chinese Inbound Tourism Demand

后疫情时代,文化冲突可能会是中国入境旅游需求复苏的突出制约因子。基于2002—2018年联合国世界旅游组织关于66个客源地对中国的入境旅游人次数据和面板数据估计策略,探究了文化冲突对中国入境旅游需求的影响及其机制。结果表明:(1)文化冲突显著负向影响中国入境旅游需求;(2)文化冲突对中国入境旅游需求影响在不同性别、区域、年龄、目的群组中具有异质性;(3)文化认同是文化冲突影响中国入境旅游需求过程中的机制变量。研究结果能推进入境旅游需求影响因素理论研究,为实现中国入境旅游需求复苏提供新的理论依据和政策参考。

In the post COVID-19 epidemic era,cultural conflict could become a vital factor impeding Chinese inbound tourism demand recovery.Based on the data of international arrivals of 66 regions of origin of China's Mainland from 2002 to 2018 gathered from the Yearbook of Tourism Statistics issued by the UNWTO,the impact of cultural conflict on Chinese inbound tourism demand and its mechanism are explored by using the panel data estimation strategies.The results show that:1) Cultural conflict has a significant negative effect on Chinese inbound tourism demand.2) The impact of cultural conflict on Chinese inbound tourism demand is heterogeneous in different gender,region,age and purpose groups.3) Cultural identity is a mechanism variable in the process of cultural conflict affecting Chinese inbound tourism demand.This study can promote the theoretical researches on inbound tourism demand determinants,and provide new theoretical basis and policy reference for Chinese inbound tourism demand recovery.