基于SCAN-CPM的产业新兴技术识别与演化路径分析:以新能源汽车产业为例

SCAN-CPM-Based Industry Emerging Technology Identification and Evolution Path Analysis:Taking the New Energy Automobile Industry as an Example

[目的/意义]产业新兴技术能够创造或改变传统产业的经济结构与发展方向,及时、准确识别产业新兴技术并明确合适的发展方向,对产业发展与变革具有重要的战略指导意义。[方法/过程]依据专利IPC分类信息,构建IPC节点网络,使用网络结构聚类算法(structural clustering algorithm for networks,SCAN)识别产业集群及新兴技术,并进行详细解析;然后基于已经识别的5个新兴技术领域专利的时序数据,构建专利节点网络,并借助关键路径分析法(critical path method,CPM)分析不同新兴技术领域下的关键路径,使识别结果更加微观化与精细化。最后以新能源汽车产业为例,从INCOPAT专利数据库中获取专利信息进行实证分析。[结果/结论]基于SCAN-CPM分析是传统新兴技术识别方法的有益补充,由大及小、由粗及细地展示技术演化路径,为全面识别新兴技术及探测技术演化路径提供新的视角和技术手段。实证分析结果发现:新能源汽车充电桩的内部设计及外部布局仍然是该产业发展的重中之重;热管理技术日益成为相对独立的技术领域,是新能源汽车产业实现"弯道超车"的重要技术支持,演化扩散路径明确;电池包环境、电机散热、电池液冷却技术、热交换器材料等技术问题是未来的重要突破创新点;电机驱动控制系统目前形成较高的专利壁垒。

[Purpose/Significance]Emerging industrial technologies have a major role in creating or changing the economic structure and development direction of traditional industries.It has important strategic and practical guiding significance for industrial development and reform to identify emerging industrial technologies in a timely and accurate manner and clarify the appropriate development direction.[Method/Process]According to the patent IPC classification information,this paper built an IPC node network,used the structural clustering algorithm for networks(SCAN)to identify industrial clusters and emerging technologies,and analyzed them in detail;then based on the time-series data of the five identified emerging technology patents,it constructed a patent node network and performed CPM to realize critical path analysis under the field of different emerging technologies,making the recognition results more microscopic and refined.Finally,taking the new energy automobile industry as an example,it obtained patent information from INCOPAT patent database for empirical analysis.[Result/Conclusion]Analysis based on SCAN-CPM is a useful supplement to the traditional emerging technology identification method.It displays the technology evolution path from large to small,from coarse to detailed,and provides a new perspective and technical means for comprehensively identifying emerging technologies and detecting technology evolution paths.The empirical analysis finds that:the internal design and external layout of charging piles for new energy vehicles are still the top priority for the development of the industry.Thermal management technology has increasingly become a relatively independent technical field.It is an important technical support for the new energy automobile industry to achieve overtaking on a curve.The evolution and diffusion path is clear.The technical issues such as battery pack environment,motor heat dissipation,battery liquid cooling technology,and heat exchanger materials are important breakthroughs and innovation points in the future.The motor drive control system currently forms a relatively high patent barrier.