基于协整和误差修正模型的贸易自由化税收效应研究

Research of the Tax Effect of Trade Liberalization Based on Cointegrationand Error Correction Models

采用1994-2020年时间序列数据,运用ADF和PP单位根检验、Johansen协整分析以及误差修正模型,对贸易自由化税收效应进行实证分析,得出进口关税收入与关税率、实际汇率、进口贸易、企业所得税正相关,与人均国内生产总值、增值税负相关;关税削减导致进口关税收入下降,进口税收收入的减少部分被增值税等间接税收入所取代,企业所得税随着进口关税收入的增加而增加。据此提出宏观经济环境持续改善、保持财税稳定、优化税制结构与收支管理等政策建议。

Using the time series data from 1994 to 2020,ADF and PP unit root test,Johansen cointegration analysis and error correction model,an empirical analysis of the effect of trade liberalization on taxation was carried out.It was concluded that import tariff revenue is positively correlated with tariff rate,real exchange rate,import trade,and corporate income tax,and negatively correlated with per capita GDP and value-added tax;the reduction of tariff rate leads to the decline of import tariff income.The reduction of import tax income was partially replaced by indirect tax income such as value-added tax,and the enterprise income tax increases with the increase of import tax income.Based on this,policy suggestions were put forward,such as continuous improvement of the macroeconomic environment,maintaining fiscal and taxation stability,optimizing the tax structure and revenue and expenditure management.