层次分析法在多维度整机系统风险评价中的应用

Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process in Multi-dimensional Risk Assessment of Aeroengine System

当前中国发动机的交付模式普遍为以磨合为目的的装配试车和以交付为目的的装配试车(两装两试),而国际上民航发动机的交付模式普遍为一次装配试车合格后即可交付(一装一试)。为转变中国现有的交付模式,开展了基于2种交付模式的风险评定方法研究。通过引入层次分析法对2种交付模式的风险进行评定,在目前采用的2维度风险矩阵评价方法基础上,引入“识别率”的概念,形成了“严酷度+概率等级+识别率”的3维度风险评价方法。构建出了一种复杂系统多维度综合风险评定方法,为衡量发动机2种交付模式的系统风险值提供了一种定量计算途径。为现有的交付方式向“一装一试”的模式转变提供了理论依据,促进了发动机厂内实现一次装配与试车,降低了交付经济成本,进而缩短了外场发动机交付周期。

At present,the engines delivery mode in China is generally assembly test run for the purpose of running-in and assembly test run for the purpose of delivery(two assemblies and two tests),while the delivery mode of civil aviation engines in the world is generally that they can be delivered after passing a one-time assembly test run(one assembly and one test).In order to change the existing delivery mode in China,the research on risk assessment method based on two delivery modes was carried out.The risks of the two delivery modes can be evaluated by introducing the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).Based on the currently used two-dimensional risk matrix evaluation method,the concept of"risk identification rate"was introduced to form a three-dimensional risk evaluation method of"Effect Severity Ranking+Occurrence Probability Ranking+Risk Identification Rate".A multi-dimensional comprehensive risk assessment method for a complex systems was constructed,which provided a quantitative calculation method for measuring the system risk value of two engine deliv⁃ery modes.It provides a theoretical basis for the transformation of the existing delivery mode to the mode of"one assembly and one test",promotes the one-time assembly and test run in the engine factory,reduces the economic cost of delivery,and further shortens the delivery cycle of the field engine.