铁路隧道下穿高速公路工程风险评估管理方法研究

Research on Risk Assessment and Management Methods for Projects of Railway Tunnels Passing under Expressways

针对某高速铁路隧道下穿高速公路工程存在的风险问题,提出了一种结合数值模拟分析的风险量化评估思路。首先,通过分析类似工程经验并结合实际工程背景建立风险评估指标体系,基于层次分析法对系统整体及层间权重进行排序;其次,参考数值模拟结果,针对工程的风险概率及后果进行模糊综合评判,得到工程风险初评结果为“中度”风险;最后,针对主要风险源提出相应的风险控制对策,按照相同程序进行风险复评,结果为“轻度”风险,表明风险控制措施具有可行性,为工程提供了一定的参考价值。

This paper puts forward a quantitative risk assessment concept combined with numerical simulation analysis to address the risks of the high-speed railway tunnel project passing under an expressway. Firstly, a risk assessment index system is established by analyzing similar project experiences and taking into account the actual project context, and the overall system and inter-layer weights are ranked by the hierarchical analysis method. Secondly, on the basis of the numerical simulation results, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is made for the risk probability and consequences of the project, and the initial evaluation result of risks for the project is "moderate" risk. Finally, the corresponding risk control countermeasures are proposed for the main sources of risks, the risk reassessment is carried out according to the same procedure, and the result is "mild" risk, which indicates that the risk control measures are feasible and can provide guidance for the project.