中国苹果种植成本收益及其影响因素分析

Analysis on Production Cost-benefit and Its Influencing Factors of Apple in China

基于2003~2019年中国苹果生产及其相关数据,运用趋势分析法和回归分析法,分析中国苹果种植的成本收益及其影响因素。研究发现:中国苹果生产总成本呈逐年上升趋势,单位面积总成本的波动大于单位产品总成本的波动,总成本的变化主要取决于生产成本,特别是生产成本中人工成本的变动;苹果生产收益呈波动上升又下降的趋势,总成本净利率和生产成本净利率之间的差异越来越小,说明苹果生产收益更加依赖于生产成本。通过苹果产值的影响因素分析发现:资本、土地及技术水平是苹果收益的主要影响因素,城镇化水平、产业结构和劳动力受教育程度也对苹果生产产生影响,而且,苹果产值存在二阶滞后性。所以,加强现代果园栽培及管理技术的应用及创新农民培训形式等是实现苹果收益最大化和苹果产业可持续发展的关键。

Based on China’s apple production and related data from 2003 to 2019,the cost-benefit and influencing factors of China’s apple production are analyzed by using trend analysis and regression analysis.The results show that the total cost of apple planting in China is increasing year by year.The fluctuation of the total cost per unit area is greater than that of the total cost per unit product.The change of the total cost mainly depends on the production cost,especially the change of labor cost in the production cost.Apple production income fluctuates,rising and falling,and the difference between total cost net interest rate and production cost net interest rate is becoming smaller and smaller,indicating that apple production income depends more on production cost.Through the analysis of the influencing factors of apple output value,it is found that capital,land and technical level are the main influencing factors of apple income.The level of urbanization,industrial structure and labor education also affect apple production.Moreover,apple output value has a second-order lag.Therefore,strengthening the application of modern orchard cultivation and management technology and innovating farmers’ training forms are the key to maximize apple revenue and the sustainable development of apple industry.