基于灰色系统理论模型的安徽省卫生总费用预测及影响因素研究

Prediction about total health expenditure in Anhui province and research on its influencing factors based on Grey System Theory

利用安徽省2010—2018年卫生总费用相关数据构建GM(1,1)预测模型,并运用灰色关联度分析法分析卫生总费用的影响因素。结果显示,未来5年安徽省卫生总费用仍将保持稳步增长,筹资结构呈现以社会卫生支出为主的特征。农村居民人均可支配收入、人均GDP和城镇居民人均可支配收入代表的经济因素是影响卫生总费用的主要因素,其关联度均高于0.8,关联性较强;政策因素和人口因素影响最小;卫生资源因素的影响作用介于两者之间。因此,安徽省仍需进一步优化筹资结构,通过逐步增强老年人口的配套医疗服务供给,增加相关政府卫生支出比例和完善相关医疗保障制度等措施促进卫生总费用实现合理增长。

The GM(1,1)prediction model was constructed based on the relevant data of the total health expenditure in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2018,and Grey Relational Analysis was applied to analyze the influencing factors of the total health expenditure.The results show that the total health expenditure in Anhui Province will maintain a steady growth in the next five years,and the financing structure is characterized mainly by social health expenditure.Economy represented by the per capita disposable income of rural residents,per capita GDP and per capita disposable income of urban residents are the main factors affecting the total health expenditure.And their correlations are all higher than 0.8,which means the correlation is strong;policy and population have the least influence;the influence of health resource is somewhere in between.Therefore,Anhui Province still needs to further optimize the financing structure,and to promote the reasonable growth of the total health expenditure by gradually enhancing the supply of supporting medical services for the elderly population,increasing the proportion of relevant government health expenditures,and improving the relevant medical insurance system.