中国居民家用汽车对家庭消费的挤出效应研究——兼论“追赶琼斯”调节作用

Research on Crowding-out Effect of Chinese Household Car on Household Consumption:Also on the Moderating Effect of“Keeping-up-with-Joneses”

本文使用2017和2019年中国家庭金融调查数据,分析家用汽车拥有及其价值对家庭消费的影响及其与县区消费水平的交互效应。实证发现,家用汽车对家庭总消费具有显著的“挤出效应”,且跨期衰减;县区消费水平对此“挤出效应”有一定的调节作用,特别是农村地区更为显著,显示“追赶琼斯”攀比效应缓和了农村家用汽车对总消费的“挤出效应”。对八大分类消费进行研究的结果具有一定的差异性:汽车价值只对食品、家庭设备服务、医疗保健、交通通讯、娱乐文化教育等五类消费具有显著的“挤出效应”,而县区消费水平不能缓和家用汽车对分类消费的“挤出效应”。本研究对引导家庭高档耐用品理性消费,特别是对当前以实现惠农强农为目标、拉动农村消费、带动农业生产的“新一轮汽车下乡”活动具有政策意义。

In this paper we apply the 2017 and 2019 China Household Finance survey data(CHFS)to analyze the effects of household-car ownership and its value on household consumption,as well as the interaction effect with the county consumption level.It is found that the household car has a significant"crowding-out effect"on the total household consumption,decaying over time,and the county consumption level has a certain moderating effect on the"crowding-out effect",especially in rural areas,which shows that"catching-up-with-Jones"alleviates the"crowding-out effect"of rural household cars on total household consumption.The impacts of car value on the eight classified classes of consumption goods have some heterogeneity:it has significant"crowding-out effects"only on the five types of consumptions such as food,household equipment and services,medical care,transportation and communication,and entertainment,culture and education,and the county consumption level can not alleviate the"crowding-out effect"of household cars on the classified consumptions.This study has policy significance in guiding the rational consumption of household high-grade durable goods,especially for the current"new round of automobile to the countryside"activity aimed at benefiting and strengthening agriculture,stimulating rural consumption and driving agricultural production.