基于生长漂移预测模型的浒苔灾害风险动态评估方法研究

Risk Dynamic Evaluation of Enteromorpha Prolifera Disaster Based on‘Growth-Drift’Prediction Model

自2008年以来,浒苔大规模爆发生长已经成为黄海海域最严重的海洋生态灾害,对沿海地区社会经济发展构成严重威胁。本文基于生长漂移预测模型对浒苔时空动态发展趋势进行预测,并将预测结果引入到由致险因子危险性和承灾体脆弱性构建的浒苔灾害风险动态评估方法体系中,同时实现具有灾害预警、多源数据处理与存储、可视化展示等功能的灾害风险评估系统。区别于一般的静态评估方法,该方法既能融合影响浒苔灾害风险态势的动态数据,又能够根据浒苔灾害的成灾机理建立具有代表性的指标体系。通过此动态评估方法可为防灾减灾部门提供决策支持,为科学防治浒苔灾害提供理论依据。

Since 2008,the large-scale eruption of Enteromorpha prolifera has become the most serious marine ecological disaster in the Yellow Sea,posing a serious threat to the social and economic development in coastal areas.With the growth drift prediction model,this pa-per presents the prediction method for the spatial-temporal dynamic development trends of Enteromorpha prolifera.The prediction results are introduced into the dynamic assessment system of Enteromorpha prolifera disaster risk,which is established by the dangerousness of threat causing factors and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies.A disaster risk assessment system with functions,including early warning,multi-source data processing and storage,and visual display,is realized.Different from traditional static evaluation methods,this method will integrate the dynamic risk situations data which affect Enteromorpha prolifera and establish a representative indicator system through the Enteromorpha prolifera disaster mechanism.This dynamic evaluation method can provide decision support for disaster preven-tion and mitigation departments,and provide theoretical basis for scientific prevention and control of Enteromorpha prolifera.