面向防灾预案的两阶段应急血液供应链鲁棒优化

Robust Optimization for Two-Stage Emergency Blood Supply Chain Design Based on Disaster Preparedness Plan

为应对突发性灾害,管理者会提前准备预案以标准化防灾救灾管理,但常出现预先部署与实际灾害需求不匹配的难题。为此,基于应急血液供应链,对这一问题展开研究。对灾前血液储备与运输的防灾预案优化,灾后临时献血点选址、血液转运等在内的灾后救援进行两阶段统筹决策。构建了基于期望目标和最小最大后悔目标的场景鲁棒模型。并分别针对血浆和红细胞,将模型应用于我国龙门山地震带的灾害防治中。仿真结果表明,模型能够根据决策者经济性和鲁棒性的要求选择合适的预案,且在基于蒙特卡洛模拟生成的测试集下,选择的预案仍能够表现出符合预期的效果。

To mitigate unexpected disasters,the disaster preparedness plans should be prepared to unify disaster prevention and relief management.However,the disaster scenario considered in the preparedness plans usually are inconsistent with the real disasters which are unknown in advance.To address this issue,a scenario-based robust model combining the expect performance and the min-max regret was developed to study two-stage emergency blood supply chain.The optimization of the preparedness plan,including blood prepositioning and transportation of before disaster,and the post-disaster relief,including the location of temporary blood collection points as well as transshipment after disaster,were taken into account.A case study for plasma and red blood cells based on the Longmenshan Fault in China was implemented.The results show that the preparedness plan given by our proposed model can satisfy the economic and robust requirements in a flexible way.Moreover,the selected preparedness plan still can perform well in the outof-sample set generated from Monte Carlo simulation.