喀斯特高原区物流业与区域经济发展的耦合协调关系研究

Analysis of Coupling Coordination Relationship between Logistics Industry and Regional Economic Development in Karst Plateau

物流业与区域经济发展之间关系密切,为实现物流业与区域经济的协调发展,以喀斯特高原区典型代表贵州省为例,构建物流业与区域经济发展的评价指标体系,采用AHP-EWM组合赋权法、耦合协调度模型和Holt指数平滑法,分析2000—2020年物流业与区域经济的协调发展水平,并对2021—2025年物流业与区域经济的发展趋势进行了预测。结果表明:2000—2020年,贵州省物流业综合评价水平和经济发展水平呈持续向好的发展态势。物流业与区域经济的耦合协调度保持上升趋势,耦合协调关系由极度失调水平演变为初级协调水平。Holt指数预测表明,2021—2025年,物流业与区域经济发展水平、耦合协调度均保持持续向好的态势,说明贵州省物流业与经济发展的协调关系将得到持续改善,从而形成良好的互动效应。

The logistics industry is closely related to the development of the regional economy. To realize the coordinated development of the logistics industry and the regional economy, this paper took Guizhou Province in Karst Plateau as an example to construct an evaluation index system for the logistics industry and regional economic development. Using the AHP-EWM combination weighting method, the coupling coordination degree model, and the Holt exponential smoothing method, this paper analyzed the coordinated development level of the logistics industry and the regional economy from 2000 to 2020 and predicted their development trend from 2021 to 2025. The results reveal that from 2000 to 2020, the comprehensive evaluation level and the economic development level of the logistics industry in Guizhou Province have shown a continuous good momentum. The degree of the coupling coordination between the logistics industry and the regional economy maintains an upward trend, and the coupling coordination relationship evolves from an extremely imbalanced level to a primary level of coordination. The forecast by the Holt exponential smoothing method indicates that from 2021 to 2025, the development level and coupling coordination degree of the logistics industry and the regional economy will continue to improve, which means that the coordination relationship between the logistics industry and economic development in Guizhou Province will see continuous improvement to achieve an interactive effect.