美国对华战略博弈背景下的亚太安全形势:影响因素、主要特征与发展趋势

The Asia-pacific Security Situation under the U.S. Strategic Game Against China: Influencing Factors, Main Features and Development Trends

大国博弈、新冠疫情、地区安全热点共同构成影响当前亚太安全形势的主要因素,其中,美国对华全面战略博弈是全局性、关键性变量。2021年以来,日本、澳大利亚、印度等地区国家的对华政策正在与美国“合流”,对抗、遏制的特征凸显;俄罗斯加大了与中国的战略协调,东盟在中心地位与统一性受到冲击的同时,试图维持大国平衡政策。传统安全与非传统安全威胁相互交织,加大了亚太安全形势的复杂性与不稳定性,突出表现为南海问题与新冠肺炎疫情。未来,为应对美日印澳的遏制,中国应加大与俄罗斯、东盟等地区力量的协调,推动区域合作,应对新冠疫情,致力于疫后经济复苏,共同构筑开放、合作与包容的地区秩序。

The current security situation in the Asia-Pacific region are influenced by three main factors: superpower games, COVID-19 and regional security. In 2021, the policy towards China of Japan, Australia, India and other countries is similar to that of the United States, and the characteristics of confrontation and containment are prominent. Russia increased its strategic coordination with China. When the central position and unity of ASEAN have been impacted, it tries to maintain the policy of balance among major powers. Traditional and non-traditional security threats are intertwined, which increases the complexity and instability of the Asia-Pacific security situation, outstanding performances include the South China Sea issue and the COVID-19. In the future, in order to cope with the containment of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, China should strengthen coordination with Russia, ASEAN and other regional forces, promote regional cooperation, deal with the COVID-19, devote itself to economic recovery after the COVID-19, and jointly build an open, cooperative and inclusive regional order.