新冠疫情冲击下欧亚经济联盟国家的宏观经济走势与分析

Macroeconomic Trend and Analysis of Eurasian Economic Union Countries under the Impact of the COVID-19

全球新冠疫情大流行以来,欧亚经济联盟成员国的宏观经济形势总体上相对稳定,其宏观经济政策的调整主要围绕保民生和保中期债务的稳定性展开。由于欧亚经济联盟及时采取了短期刺激的财政政策、宽松的货币政策和灵活的信贷政策来刺激经济复苏,并有效地进行了预算规则调整,基本消除了经济持续衰退和发生系统性财政风险的可能。2021年以来,联盟经济平稳复苏,宏观经济指标趋好,基本保持了欧亚地区的政治安全与社会稳定。在疫情常态化背景下,保就业、稳增长、防通胀和增收入是保持地区政治安全稳定和确保联盟经济可持续发展最根本的任务。未来,欧亚经济联盟宏观经济形势的不确定性仍有持续增加的风险。

Since the outbreak of the global COVID-19, the macroeconomic situation of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union(EEU) has generally been relatively stable. The adjustment of their macroeconomic policies mainly focuses on protecting people’s livelihood and ensuring the stability of medium-term debt. As a result of the timely adoption of short-term stimulating fiscal policies, loose monetary policies and flexible credit policies by the EEU to stimulate economic recovery, the budget rules have been effectively adjusted, and eliminated the possibility of sustained economic recession and systemic financial risks basically. Since 2021, the EEU’s economy has recovered steadily and macroeconomic indicators have improved, basically maintained the political security and social stability in Europe and Asia. Under the background of the normalization of epidemic situation, ensuring employment, stabilizing growth, preventing inflation and increasing income are the most fundamental tasks to keep regional political security and stability and ensure the sustainable development of alliance economy. In the future, the uncertainty of the macroeconomic situation of the Eurasian Economic Union will continue to increase.