基于有投机特征的前期损益与损失厌恶的报童决策分析

Newsvendor decision analysis based on speculative characteristics of prior gains and losses

针对具有较强投机特征的前景报童批量决策场景,引入前期损益概念推广至考虑若干期的累积前期损益,并将其纳入影响时变特征下损失厌恶系数的因素,以此构建受累积前期损益影响的前景报童订货模型以分析累积前期损益对报童订货批量的影响。研究表明(1)若存在累积前期收益,可使得报童订货批量增大;反之,报童订货批量减少;(2)非对称效应同等程度的累积前期收益带来的订货批量的改变量较同等程度的累积前期损失更大;(3)均值偏向程度改变累积前期损益值增加,高利润情境下的订货偏差程度下降,低利润情境中的订货偏差程度上升。

In view of the newsvendor batch decision-making prospect with strong speculative characteristics,this paper introduces the concept of prior gains and losses to consider the cumulative prior gains and losses of several periods,and takes it into account the factors that affect the loss aversion coefficient with time-varying characteristics,so as to construct the newsvendor ordering model affected by the cumulative prior gains and losses to analyze the impact of the cumulative prior gains and losses on the newsvendor ordering batch.The results show that:(1)if there exist accumulated prior gains,the newsvendors’order quantity will increase,conversely,the order quantity will decrease;(2)Asymmetric effect:the change of order quantity caused by the same degree of accumulated prior gains is larger than that caused by the same degree of accumulated prior losses;(3)The change of mean deviation degree:when the cumulative gains and losses increase,the order deviation decreases in the high profit situation,and increases in the low profit situation.