基于“口粮绝对安全”的小麦和稻谷多元化进口策略分析

An Analysis on the Diversified Import Strategy of Wheat and Rice Based on“Absolute Security of Staple Food”

结合粮食贸易格局演变及口粮贸易面临的新情况、新问题,对拓展稻谷和小麦进口的潜在路径及面临的风险进行分析。从数量角度来看,未来中国稻谷和小麦进口需求能够得到满足,进口多元化应基于价格、品质、运输、贸易政策、政治风险、生产波动、季节差异等多种因素,并结合农产品整体进口格局进行综合考量。未来拓展大米进口来源可供选择的国家包括缅甸、印度、柬埔寨、巴西和美国等;拓展小麦进口来源可供选择的国家包括哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯、法国、乌克兰、阿根廷、德国、保加利亚和罗马尼亚等。在“十四五”期间以及今后相当长的时期内,应继续坚持以我为主,增强市场调控能力;积极开拓新的进口渠道,防范进口来源过度集中的风险;培育具有粮食贸易掌控力的大粮商,提升贸易话语权;积极参与国际农产品贸易规则制定,提升国际市场话语权。

Based on the evolution of grain trade pattern since the founding of the People’s Republic of China and the new issues in grain trade,this paper analyzes the potential path and risks of expanding the import of rice and wheat.Viewing from quantity,China’s import demand of rice and wheat can be met in the future.Import diversification should be considered comprehensively from price,quality,transportation,trade policy,political risk,production fluctuation,seasonal difference and other factors,combined with the overall pattern of agricultural imports.In the future,Myanmar,India,Cambodia,Brazil and the United States are the options for rice import;Kazakhstan,Russia,France,Ukraine,Argentina,Germany,Bulgaria and Romania are the options for wheat import.During the 14th Five-year Plan period and for a long time to come,we will continue to be self-sufficient based on domestic grain production and strengthen market regulation;Actively explore new import channels to prevent the risk of excessive concentration of import sources;Cultivate large grain dealers who can control over grain trade so as to have more right of speech in grain trade;and actively participate in formulating rules for international trade in agricultural products and have more of a chance for our voices to be heard in the international market.