中国城市群经济韧性的地区差异、分布动态与空间收敛

Regional Differences,Distribution Dynamics and Spatial Convergence of Economic Resilience in Chinese Urban Agglomerations

当前城市网络关联日益紧密,城市危机极易发生扩散,行政区经济格局已经难以迅速调适频繁的扰动冲击,在城市群空间格局下探寻韧性提升路径更具现实意义。基于GMM-SL-SAR-RE函数分析法测算经济韧性,采用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计和空间收敛模型研究经济韧性的时空格局。结果表明:珠三角等10个城市群的经济韧性较强,而成渝等4个城市群的经济韧性较弱;东部地区城市群的经济韧性相对较强;城市群经济韧性整体变动趋势呈现N型特征。城市群经济韧性Dagum基尼系数呈现波动上升的趋势,城市群经济韧性差距有所扩大;成渝内部以及与其他城市群之间的经济韧性差距均较大,而珠三角内部以及与其他城市群之间的经济韧性差距均较小;超变密度对城市群经济韧性地区差距的贡献率居于主导地位,而城市群之间经济韧性的差距具有扩大趋势。城市群经济韧性的分布状态变化较小,且提升速度较慢;城市群经济韧性呈现低—低、高—高集聚的正向空间相关性;京津冀等城市群经济韧性呈现正向空间动态溢出效应,而辽中南等城市群经济韧性发展到较高水平时呈现负向空间动态溢出效应。城市群总体以及各城市群经济韧性均存在β绝对收敛,其中珠三角的收敛速度最快,而山东半岛的收敛速度最慢;城市群总体和各城市群同时存在β条件收敛,人力资本、技术进步和产业结构对经济韧性增长速度具有显著的正向影响;一体化程度相似的城市群经济韧性表现出俱乐部收敛趋势,而且一体化程度较高的城市群具有更快的收敛速度。据此提出加强互动合作、深化网络协同、坚持多元发展等政策建议,以期构建富有网络韧性的区域经济格局。

Due to the increasingly close connection of urban networks,urban crises are prone to spread,which makes it difficult for the economic pattern of administrative regions to adjust and adapt to frequent disturbances and shocks.Therefore,it is of more practical significance to explore the resilience improvement path under the spatial pattern of urban agglomeration.This article calculates the economic resilience of 14 urban agglomerations from 2008 to 2019 in China by using the GMM-SL-SAR-RE method,calculates and decomposes the differences in economic resilience by using Dagum Gini coefficient,describes the distribution dynamic characteristics of economic resilience by using the kernel density estimation,and tests theβconvergence of economic resilience by using the spatial convergence model.Research findings:Firstly,the economic resilience of 10 urban agglomerations such as the Pearl River Delta is strong,while the economic resilience of 4 urban agglomerations such as Chengdu and Chongqing are poor.The economic resilience of urban agglomerations in the eastern region is relatively strong.The overall change trend of economic resilience presents N-type characteristics.Secondly,Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition results show that the Dagum Gini coefficient of economic resilience of China’s urban agglomerations shows a fluctuating upward trend,and the gap of economic resilience of urban agglomerations has widened;The gap of economic resilience between Chengdu and Chongqing and other urban agglomerations is large,while the gap of economic resilience between the Pearl River Delta and other urban agglomerations is small;The contribution rate of super-variable density to the regional gap of economic resilience is dominant,while the gap of economic resilience among urban agglomerations tends to expand.Then,the results of kernel density estimation show that,the distribution state of economic resilience changes little,and the improvement speed is slow.The economic resilience shows a positive spatial correlation of low-low and high-high agglomeration.The economic resilience of urban agglomerations such as Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei shows a positive spatial dynamic spillover effect,while the economic resilience of urban agglomerations such as Central and Southern Liaoning shows a negative spatial dynamic spillover effect when it develops to a high level.Finally,the test results of spatial convergence show that the economic resilience of overall and each urban agglomeration existsβabsolute convergence,in which the convergence speed of the Pearl River Delta is the fastest and that of the Shandong Peninsula is the slowest;The economic resilience of overall and each urban agglomeration existsβconditional convergence.Human capital,technological progress and industrial structure have a significant positive impact on the growth rate of economic resilience.The economic resilience of urban agglomerations with similar degree of integration shows the trend of club convergence,and the urban agglomerations with higher degree of integration have faster convergence speed.Accordingly,it puts forward some policy suggestions,such as narrowing the gap of economic resilience of urban agglomeration,improving the risk resistance of urban agglomeration,and enhancing the long-term adaptability of urban agglomeration,in the hope of building a regional economic pattern with network resilience.