供给侧结构性改革如何提升制造业供给质量?

How to Improve the Supply Quality of Manufacturing Industry by Supply-side Structural Reform?

在经济下行背景下,深化供给侧结构性改革、提高实体经济供给质量,是中国经济高质量发展的关键。本文首先基于2012-2019年中国30个省市的面板数据,测度制造业供给质量水平,再进一步运用双重差分模型分析供给侧结构性改革对制造业供给质量的政策影响与传导机制。结果表明:全国制造业供给质量指数呈上升趋势,尤其2015-2016年上升趋势明显,直观结论可见供给侧结构性改革取得初步成效;供给侧结构性改革对提升制造业供给质量有显著正向影响,且相较于北方省市,政府干预程度较弱的南方省市对供给侧结构性改革效果更加敏感;进一步检验供给侧结构性改革影响制造业供给质量的传导机制,显示中介效应显著。

Under the backdrop of economic downturn,the high-quality development of China’s economy depends on deepening the supply side structural reform and improving the supply quality of the real economy.Grounded on the panel data of thirty China’s provinces and cities from 2012 to 2019,this thesis,first and foremost,judges the supply quality level of manufacturing industry,then further makes use of difference-in-differences model to analyze concerned policy impacts and transmission mechanism of supply side structural reform against the supply quality of manufacturing industry.The results showcase:MMSI presents an upward trend,especially from 2015 to 2016,and brings an intuitive conclusion that the supply side structural reform has achieved preliminary success.The supply side structural reform poses a significant and positive impact on supply quality improvement of manufacturing industry and southern provinces and cities under weaker government intervention performs more sensitive to the reform effects than their northern counterparts.Further testing on the transmission mechanism of the supply side structural reform’s impact on the supply quality of manufacturing industry shows a visible intermediary effect.