战略性关键矿产可供性评价方法研究现状及展望

Research Status and Prospect of Strategic Critical Minerals Availability Evaluation Methods

战略性关键矿产在能源转型中扮演着关键角色,是全球主要经济体在碳中和进程中争夺的原材料,保障战略性关键矿产可持续供应是当前我国资源安全面临的重要问题。传统的矿产资源可供性评价方法主要分为微观尺度的财务模型、地质类比法和宏观尺度的Hubbert模型。传统的评价方法具有较强的主观性以及对数据具有高度依赖性和敏感性。在实践中,上述方法往往存在着数据获取成本高以及评价结果精度低的问题,其适用性较差。与传统的大宗矿产相比,锂、稀土、钴等典型关键矿产资源具有细、伴、精的地质特征,亟需创新可供性评价方法。首先,本文将战略性关键矿产可供性评价从地质、技术、经济、环境和突发事件五个维度分为市场机制、物理机制和外生机制三个部分,指出了战略性关键矿产可供性评价的重点。其次,本文分析了战略性关键矿产可供性评价实践中的难点。最后,本文展望了战略性关键矿产可供性评价领域未来研究的议题。

Strategic critical minerals,which play an important role in the energy transition,are important raw materials contested by major economies in the process of carbon neutralization.Ensuring the sustainable supply of strategic critical minerals is an important issue for China’s resource security at present.Traditional evaluation methods of mineral resources availability are mainly divided into the micro-scale financial model,geological analogy method,and macro-scale Hubbert model,which are subjective and dependent on and sensitive to data.In practice,the above methods have the shortcomings of high cost of data acquisition and low accuracy of evaluation results,thus resulting in poor applicability.Compared with traditional bulk minerals,typical critical mineral resources such as rare earth and cobalt present geological characteristics of being fine and companioned,so there is an urgent need to innovate availability evaluation methods.First,this paper divides the availability evaluation of strategic critical minerals into three parts:market mechanism,physical mechanism,and exogenous mechanism from the five dimensions of geology,technology,economy,environment,and emergency.The key points of strategic critical mineral availability evaluation are then explained based on the division.Second,the paper analyzes the difficulties in practicing strategic critical mineral availability evaluation.Finally,the paper looks forward to the future research topics in the field of strategic critical mineral availability evaluation.