中国“碳中和”的城市协同路径研究——基于“碳达峰”异质性的门限模型

A Study on the Urban Synergy Path of Carbon Neutrality in China——Threshold Model Based on Carbon Peak Heterogeneity

随着经济的发展和居民生活水平的提高,二氧化碳(CO_(2))排放逐渐成为人类面临的重大环境问题,本文在中国碳核算数据库(CEADs)的基础上,通过拓展的EKC曲线探究了中国247个城市的CO_(2)排放路径问题。研究表明:人均GDP对城市CO_(2)排放呈现出先上升后下降的非对称倒“U”型关系,碳达峰点后的EKC曲线趋势较缓。城市异质性研究发现:(1)能源型和重工业型城市是中国CO_(2)排放的主要来源,受工业结构的制约,这两类城市需要在经历两阶段碳排放不断增长的趋势之后,才能实现碳达峰目标;(2)轻工业型、技术型和服务型三类城市均在经济发展的第一阶段末期实现了碳达峰目标,之后两阶段CO_(2)排放开始呈现递减趋势;(3)技术型城市较好地协调了经济增长和CO_(2)排放之间的关系,轻工业型城市维持了经济发展的低碳运行,人口集聚使服务型城市面临严峻的生活领域碳排放问题。因此,中国“双碳”目标的实现需要积极探索城市间的协同路径,发挥北京和上海等城市的技术引领和辐射作用,推动轻工业城市的绿色高效发展,使能源型和重工业型城市加速完成产业转型和升级。

With the development of economy and the improvement of residents’ living standards, the emission of carbon dioxide(CO_(2)) has gradually become a major environmental problem facing human beings.Based on China Urban Carbon Emission Database(CEADs),this paper explores the CO_(2)emission paths of 247 cities in China through the extended EKC curve.The results show that: The impact of per capita GDP on urban CO_(2)emissions presents an asymmetrical inverted “U” shaped relationship with first upward and then downward trend, and the trend of EKC curve is slow after the carbon reaches the peak.Based on the heterogeneity of cities, it is found that:(1) energy and heavy industrial cities are the main sources of CO_(2)emissions in China.Restricted by the industrial structure, these two types of cities need to experience the trend of increasing carbon emissions in two stages before they can reach the carbon peak;(2) The light industrial, technology-oriented and service-oriented cities all reached the carbon peak at the end of the first stage of economic development, and then the CO_(2)emissions in the two stages began to show a decreasing trend;(3) Technology-based cities coordinate the relationship between economic growth and CO_(2)emissions;light industrial cities maintain low carbon operation of economic development, and population accumulation makes service cities face severe carbon emission problems in the field of life.Therefore, to achieve China’s “dual carbon” goal, it is necessary to actively explore synergistic paths between cities, give full play to the technology-leading and radiating role of cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, promote the green and efficient development of light industry cities, and accelerate the industrial transformation and upgrading of energy and heavy industry cities.