“雷霆扫毒”对贩卖毒品犯罪的影响及后续时空分布变化——以ZG市主城区为例

The impact of"Thunder Anti-drug"operation on drug dealing crime:A case study of the main urban area of ZG city

贩卖毒品是实现毒品犯罪经济利益的重要环节,是危害最为严重的毒品犯罪类型之一。现有研究主要关注毒品犯罪与建成环境之间的关系,没有顾及打击后贩卖毒品犯罪空间转移现象以及影响因素的变化。本文基于日常活动理论、犯罪模式理论和社会解组理论,以中国ZG市主城区为例,融合多源时空数据,分别对2013年8月开始的“雷霆扫毒”前后的贩卖毒品犯罪构建负二项回归模型,分析微观尺度下半公共空间、室外公共空间和室内私人空间对贩卖毒品犯罪影响的变化。研究发现“雷霆扫毒”行动后:(1)贩卖毒品犯罪案件数量显著下降;(2)半公共空间对贩卖毒品犯罪的影响作用减弱;(3)室外公共空间对贩卖毒品犯罪影响作用增强,室内私人空间对贩卖毒品犯罪的影响上升。结果表明:“雷霆扫毒”专项行动开展后一年,贩卖毒品犯罪的“主阵地”发生变化,由城市半公共空间逐渐向室外公共空间和室内私人空间转移。特别的是,“雷霆扫毒”对大毒枭及贩毒团伙的打击成效突出,促使2014年贩毒案件大幅度下降,实现了专项行动开展的目的。后续一系列专项行动进一步提升了对贩卖毒品犯罪的发现和查处能力,显示出专项行动对打击隐性犯罪的明显效果。研究表明公安执法部门必须对毒品贩卖犯罪进行持续的、有针对性的打击,对发生地的变动进行定期的监控,不能一蹴而就。

Drug dealing is closely related with economic benefits,which brings great damage to the society.Many strict measures have been taken to crack down drug-related crimes in China,but there is a lack of research on the spatial displacement and influencing factors’changes of drug dealing after crackdown.Based on the routine activity theory,crime pattern theory and social disorganization theory,this study built negative binomial regression models before and after the"Thunder Anti-drug"operation respectively,and analyzed how the impacts of semi-public,outdoor and private spaces on drug dealing had changed in the microcosmic scale.The findings are as follows:(1)Drug dealing crimes dropped significantly immediately after the operation.(2)The impact of the semi-public space,such as hotels,stores,supermarkets and entertainment places,on drug dealing crimes decreased after the crackdown.(3)The impact of outdoor public space,such as main roads,branch lines,bus-stops and parks,on drug dealing crime strengthened after the intensified crackdown.Private space such as residential areas had significant positive influence on drug dealing crimes,and the impact strengthened after the crackdown.The results show that drug dealing crimes moved to outdoor public space and private space from semi-public space.The"Thunder Anti-drug"operation was effective to crackdown top drug traffickers and drug dealing gangs,which led to a massive decline in drug dealing crimes in 2014.The follow-up operations further improved the ability for investigating hidden drug crimes.The results show that law enforcement department must carry out sustained and targeted operations on drug related crimes,to ensure continuous effect.