基于新SEIRS的矿工不安全行为传播分析

Spread of unsafe behaviors of miners based on the new SEIRS

为研究矿工间不安全行为的传播机制并提高煤矿对不安全行为治理的针对性,采用传播动力学方法,在流行病传播模型的基础上构建了易染-潜伏-不安全-免疫的新SEIRS传播模型;通过Python设置矿工不安全行为的传播范围、时间周期、初始参数等,实现了对模型的数值仿真;研究了转化率对稳态下进行不安全生产的矿工人数的影响。结果表明:提高矿工的免疫率和矫正率可以抑制不安全行为的传播,而提高矿工的潜伏率和遗忘率则会加快不安全行为的传播,易染矿工的转化方向在不安全行为传播中处于决定性地位;矿工的不安全行为传播与转化存在一定规律性,应据此开展针对性培训等干预,提升煤矿的安全管理水平。

In order to study the transmission mechanism of unsafe behaviors among miners and improve the pertinence of coal mines on the governance of unsafe behaviors,the method of transmission dynamics was adopted to construct a new SEIRS model that concludes susceptible,exposed,unsafe,and immune miners based on the epidemic transmission model.The propagation range,time period,and initial parameters of unsafe behaviors of miners were set through Python,and the numerical simulation of the model was realized.The influence of conversion rate on the number of miners working unsafe under steady state is studied.The results show that increasing the immunity and correction rate of miners can inhibit the spread of unsafe behaviors,while increasing the exposing and forgetting rates of miners will accelerate the spread of unsafe behaviors.The conversion direction of susceptible miners is vital in the spread of unsafe behaviors.There is certain regularity in the dissemination and transformation of unsafe behaviors of miners,and targeted training and other interventions should be carried out accordingly to improve the safety management level of coal mines.