西部地区大气污染与产业结构动态关系的研究

Study on the Dynamic Relationship Between Atmospheric Pollution and Industrial Structure in Western China

文章对2010-2019年西部地区大气污染排放和产业结构变化之间进行动态统计分析。首先通过在时间上对西部地区大气污染状况进行分析,发现西部地区总体空气污染指数在2019年呈下降趋势。然后根据区位熵指数,分析2019年西部地区新疆、青海、西藏、甘肃四省份中32个城市的三次产业结构和竞争力。其次选取产业产值的比值作为产业结构变化率以及二氧化硫排放量、氮氧化物排放量、烟尘排放量作为3个空气质量指标,通过VAR模型研究西部地区大气污染与产业结构变化之间的动态关系。最后,运用GM(1,1)模型预测各产业产值在西部地区水平较高的宁夏回族自治区未来的污染状况。

This paper conducts a dynamic statistical analysis of the relationship between air pollution emissions and industrial structure changes in the western regions from 2010 to 2019.Firstly,by analyzing the air pollution situation in the western regions in time,it is found that the overall air pollution index in the western regions showed a downward trend in2019.Then based on the location entropy index,the three-dimensional industrial structure and competitiveness of 32 cities in Xinjiang,Qinghai,Tibet,and Gansu provinces in the western region in 2019 were analyzed.Secondly,the ratio of industrial output value is selected as the rate of change in the industrial structure,as well as sulfur dioxide emissions,nitrogen oxide emissions,and soot emissions as the three air quality indicators,and the dynamic relationship between air pollution and industrial structure changes in the western regions is studied through the VAR model.Finally,the GM(1,1)model is used to predict the future pollution status of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,where the output value of various industries is higher in the western regions.