青藏高原地区气象干旱研究进展与展望

Meteorological Droughts in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau:Research Progress and Prospects

青藏高原是承受自然灾害脆弱性较高的地区。该区域经常遭受雪灾、干旱、大风、雷电、冰雹和洪涝等气象灾害的危害,其中,干旱是该区域除雪灾外影响最为严重的气象灾害。随着气候变化和人类活动的加剧,青藏高原由气象灾害造成的损失不断加剧。为此,着眼于青藏高原的区域特点,对其气象干旱研究现状进行了梳理与分析,系统总结了青藏高原气象干旱的主要研究成果,揭示了青藏高原气象干旱时空分布的基本特征:干旱的高发区在高原的北部、东北部、西南部和东南部,高发时段为1980年代和2000年代;归纳了青藏高原气象干旱监测和预测的主要技术方法:基于干旱指数开展的干旱监测评估和基于干旱影响因子利用气候模式进行的干旱预测;给出了青藏高原干旱灾害风险的发生规律:青藏高原东北部偏南地区是农牧业干旱灾害的高风险区,东北部、西南部和东南部是较高风险区;高寒草原比高寒草甸面临的干旱灾害风险高。基于数值模式和未来情景,预估21世纪青藏高原气温升高、降水增加;但由于降水增加表现出明显的时空分布不均匀性,未来发生季节性和区域性气象干旱的可能性仍然很大;同时,提出了青藏高原气象干旱研究在资料、技术方法和模式应用等方面存在的问题,并结合国际前沿,展望了青藏高原气象干旱未来研究需关注的关键科学问题和技术领域。

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a region vulnerable to natural disasters.There are many natural meteorological disasters occurring on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,such as snow disasters,droughts,strong winds,thunder and lightning,hail,and floods.Droughts are the most serious type of meteorological disaster in the region,apart from snow.With climate change and the increase in human activities,the losses caused by natural disasters on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are increasing over time.Focusing on the regional characteristics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,we evaluate the situation of meteorological droughts.The main results of meteorological drought research are systematically summarized,and the basic temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of meteorological droughts are revealed.The current technical methods for meteorological drought monitoring and forecasting are clarified,and the laws of meteorological drought disaster risk are elucidated in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The results show that the high-incidence areas of droughts are in the north,northeast,southwest,and southeast of the plateau.The high incidence periods were the 1980 s and the 2000 s.Drought monitoring is mainly conducted based on the drought index and using drought-prediction climate models based on drought influencing factors.The southern part of the northeastern area is a high-risk region for drought disasters impacting agriculture and animal husbandry,while the northeast,southwest,and southeast are higherrisk areas.The alpine grasslands face a higher risk of drought disasters than alpine meadows.Numerical models based on future scenarios revealed that temperature and precipitation may increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the 21 st century.However,owing to the obvious unevenness in the temporal and spatial distribution of the increased precipitation,the possibility of seasonal and regional meteorological droughts in the future is still remarkably high.Finally,remaining problems in the study of meteorological droughts in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,in terms of data,technical methods,and model applications,are discussed.Combining existing local problems and international perspective,the key scientific issues and technical fields concerning meteorological droughts in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are highlighted.