基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC法中国远洋鱿钓渔业脆弱性指标选择与分析

Selection and analysis of vulnerability indexes of China′s pelagic squid jigging fishery based on DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC method

结合脆弱性理论,从气候与环境、物种、社会经济等3方面建立我国远洋鱿钓渔业社会-生态系统脆弱性指标体系,并运用DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC(决策试验与评价实验室-解释结构模型-交叉影响矩阵相乘)法对指标之间关系及指标体系的结构进行分析。研究表明:我国远洋鱿钓渔业脆弱性指标之间相互联系,其中最为重要的是渔业资源、捕捞强度、科技投入和政策与管理;所有指标根据作用可分为关联因素、调整因子、驱动因素、依赖因素和自主因素等5类,较关键的是前3类因素;除渔业资源外,脆弱性指标体系可分为本质致因L4、深层致因L3、过渡致因L2和近邻致因L1等4个层级,长期监控L3和L4层指标,重视L2和L3层的指标,有针对性地调整L1层指标,是保持我国远洋鱿钓渔业长期健康发展的有效路径。该研究不仅能识别影响我国远洋鱿钓渔业脆弱性的关键因素,同时可为远洋鱿钓渔业的科学管理提供理论指导,并为脆弱性实证评估奠定基础。

Pelagic squid jigging fishery is an important component of China′s pelagic fishery. For the sustainable and high-quality development of China′s pelagic squid jigging fishery, this paper established its social-ecosystem vulnerability index system from three aspects-climate and environment, species, and social economy, based on the theory of vulnerability. The DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC(Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Interpretive Structure Modeling-Matriced Impacts Corises-multiplcation Appliance Classement) method was used to analyze the relationship between indicators and the structure of the index system. The results show that: The vulnerability indicators of China′s pelagic squid jigging fishery are linked, among which the most important are fishery resources, fishing intensity, scientific and technological investment, and policy and management;All indicators can be divided into five categories according to their roles: related factors, adjustment factors, driving factors, dependence factors and autonomous factors, among which the first three categories should be paid more attention to;Moreover, apart from fishery resources, the vulnerability system can be divided into four levels: essential causes L4, deep causes L3, transition causes L2 and neighbor causes L1. Long-term monitoring of L3 and L4 indicators, attention to L2 and L3 indicators, and targeted adjustment of L1 indicators are effective ways to maintain the long-term healthy development of pelagic squid jigging fishery in China.This study can not only identify the key factors that affect the vulnerability of pelagic squid jigging fishery and provide theoretical guidance for effective management, but also lay a foundation for the empirical assessment of vulnerability.