反腐败能否提高社会信任:事实与机制

Whether the Anti-corruption Can Improve Social Trust:Facts and Mechanism

基于党的十八大后反腐败斗争在各省份取得的效果差异,构造准自然实验设计,考察反腐败对民众社会信任的影响及其作用机制。使用2012年和2014年中国家庭追踪调查(China Family Panel Studies,CFPS)两期平衡面板数据,利用双重差分模型(DID)进行政策效应评估,研究结果表明:反腐败显著提升了民众社会信任,反腐败力度越大,对民众社会信任的促增效用越强,且该结论在经改变样本分组、变量测度等稳健性检验后依然成立。此外,进一步的机制分析发现,反腐败通过提高民众的政府绩效评价和降低腐败感知,提高了民众社会信任。本文在理论上拓展和深化了学界对社会信任内在决定机制的认识,也为实务层面检验全面从严治党的社会政治效应提供了经验证据。

The article constructs a quasi-natural experimental design based on the differences in the effects achieved by the anti-corruption fight in each province after the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to examine the impact of anti-corruption on social trust of the public and its mechanism.Using the two periods of balanced panel data of the China Household Tracking Survey(CFPS)in 2012 and 2014,and the Double Differential Model(DID)to evaluate the policy effects,the research results show that anti-corruption has significantly improved the public’s social trust,and the greater the anti-corruption efforts in a province,the stronger the boosting effect on social trust of the public.The conclusion is still valid after changing the sample grouping,variable measurement and other robustness tests.In addition,further mechanistic analysis reveals that anti-corruption strengthened the public’s social trust by improving the public’s evaluation of government performance and reducing the perception of corruption.The article theoretically expands and deepens the understanding of the intrinsic determinants of social trust,and provides empirical evidence to test the social and political effects of strict governance of the Party at practical level .