管道风险可接受准则确定方法探讨

Discussion on Determination Method of Risk Acceptance Criteria for Long-distance Pipeline

风险可接受准则是风险评价的关键技术,但目前国内外还未形成统一、公认的准则。阐述了风险可接受准则的基本涵义、影响因素以及遵循原则。技术路线为首先解决个人风险和社会风险,其次关注财产损失和环境损害风险。借鉴国际风险评价惯例做法,风险划分为不可接受区、可容忍区和广泛接受区。根据中国长输管道特点和事故统计数据,确定了社会风险的超越概率(F)和死亡人数(N)关系曲线模型,财产损失可接受准则P-L曲线,以及环境损害可接受准则平均恢复期。研究适用于国内管道的风险可接受准则,对于提高管道安全管理水平具有重要意义。

Risk acceptance criteria is the key technology of risk assessment, but there is no unified and recognized criterion at home and abroad. The basic meaning, influencing factors and principles of risk acceptance criteria are expounded. The technical route is to first solve the personal risk and social risk, and then pay attention to the risk of property loss and environmental damage. Based on international risk assessment practices, risks are divided into unacceptable areas, tolerable areas and widely accepted areas. According to the characteristics of China long distance pipeline and accident statistics, the relationship curve model between the surpass probability(F) and the number of deaths(N) of social risk, the P-L curve of the acceptance criteria of property loss, and the average recovery period of the acceptance criteria of environmental damage are determined. The study is suitable for the risk acceptance criteria of pipeline in China. It is of great significance for improving the level of pipeline safety management.