贵州城市臭氧污染的天气学—统计学预报方法研究

Study on the method of urban ozone pollution forecast in Guizhoubase on synoptic meteorology and statistics

本文通过对贵州北部城市赤水近5年(2016—2020)的环境监测数据和气象观测数据进行统计与拟合,分析了气象条件对近地面O_(3)_8h浓度的影响,同时通过对赤水市城区的VOCs排放源进行调查,统计了当地臭氧前体物排放源的年际变化情况,加以识别相同气象条件下排放源变化的影响。以赤水市六月为例,对气象预报数据首先进行一级筛选,确定气温≥31℃、湿度≤57%作为臭氧污染的启报条件,满足条件即进行二级筛选;二级筛选条件包括降水量、日照时长和风速,若降水量=0 mm、日照时长≥10 h、风速<2.5 m/s,则满足触发三级筛选的条件;三级筛选条件为天气形势,若天气形势为西藏高压或西槽东脊,并伴随有区域性雷暴预警,则最终发布臭氧污染预警。本文探讨了针对城市臭氧污染的天气学—统计学预报方法,初步形成了一套针对城市臭氧污染预报的简易化流程。

Based on the statistics and fitting of environmental monitoring data and meteorological observation data in Chishui,the city of north Guizhou Province in recent 5 years(2016-2020),this paper analyzes the impact of meteorological conditions on near surface O_(3)_8h concentration.At the same time,through the investigation of VOCs emission sources in the urban area of Chishui City,the interannual variation of local ozone precursor emission sources are summarized,and the influence of emission source variation under the same meteorological conditions is identified.For example in June,firstly the meteorological forecast data shall be screened as the primary,the temperature≥31℃and humidity≤57%are determined as the starting conditions of ozone pollution,if the conditions are met,secondary screening will be carried out.The secondary screening conditions include precipitation,sunshine duration and wind speed,if precipitation=0mm,sunshine duration≥10h and wind speed<2.5m/s,then the tertiary screening is started,which depends on the weather type.If the weather type is Tibetan High or Western trough and Eastern ridge,and accompanied by regional thunderstorm warning,the ozone pollution warning will be issued finally.This paper discusses the synoptic statistical prediction method for urban ozone pollution,and preliminarily forms a set of simplified process for urban ozone pollution prediction.