农村劳动力转移的减贫及其空间溢出效应——基于省级面板数据的分析

POVERTY REDUCTION AND SPATIAL SPILLOVER EFFECT OF RURAL LABOR TRANSFER——BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF PROVINCIAL PANEL DATE

[目的]旨在探讨农村劳动力转移的减贫及其空间溢出效应,以期准确估计农村劳动力转移对农村减贫的作用。[方法]文章基于我国大陆31个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,通过构建空间计量模型,设置邻接、地理和经济3种空间权重矩阵,实证检验了2007—2017年农村劳动力转移对农村贫困的影响。[结果](1)我国省域农村贫困发生率和农村劳动力转移程度均有显著的空间集聚特征,农村贫困发生率呈现出“高—高”和“低—低”的空间分布特征。(2)在邻接权重下,该地区农村劳动力转移规模每提高1%,使得该地区的农村贫困降低了0.317%,邻近地区的农村贫困降低了0.136%;在地理权重下,该地区农村劳动力转移规模每提高1%,使该地区的农村贫困降低了0.323%,邻近地区的农村贫困降低了0.129%;在经济权重下,该地区农村劳动力转移规模每提高1%,将使该地区的农村贫困降低0.315%,邻近地区的农村贫困降低0.192%。[结论]农村劳动力转移不仅有利于本区域内的农村贫困减少,还可以通过溢出效应来缓解相邻地区的农村贫困。

This study aims to explore the poverty reduction and spatial spillover effects of rural labor transfer,so as to accurately estimate the effect of rural labor transfer on rural poverty reduction.Based on panel data of 31provinces(regions,or cities)in China,we empirically tested the impact of rural labor transfer on rural poverty from2007 to 2017 by constructing a spatial measurement model and setting up three spatial weight matrices of adjacency,geography and economy.Results showed that the incidence of rural poverty in China’s provinces and the degree of rural labor transfer had significant spatial agglomeration characteristics.The incidence of poverty in rural areas showed the spatial distribution characteristics of"high-high"and"low-low".Under the neighboring weight,each 1%increase in the scale of rural labor transfer in the region reduced rural poverty in the region by 0.317%,and rural poverty in neighboring areas reduced by 0.136%.Under the geographical weight,for each 1%increase in the scale of rural labor transfer in the region,the rural poverty in the region reduced by 0.323%,while the rural poverty in the neighboring regions reduce by 0.129%.Under the economic weight,each 1%increase in the scale of rural labor transfer in the region reduced rural poverty in the region by 0.315%,and rural poverty in neighboring areas reduced by 0.192%.In general,the transfer of rural labor is not only conducive to reduce rural poverty in the region,but also can alleviate rural poverty in neighboring areas through spillover effects.